2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the BOC storm in the long-range again.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS back to showing the long-range Western Caribbean development starting @ 264hrs.

[RL3AO]

A Central American gyre slowly lifting northward and going for the NW gulf. Where have I seen this story before?

[tropicwatch]

Deja vu

[bamajammer4eva]

Gulf waters look stirred up from Cindy for now so this may keep things in check down there for a bit.

[RL3AO]

Gulf waters look stirred up from Cindy for now so this may keep things in check down there for a bit.

Considering we're talking a potential ramp up in 2 to 3 weeks, I don't think Cindy making the SST's 27 to 29C will be much of an issue.

[bamajammer4eva]

Gulf waters look stirred up from Cindy for now so this may keep things in check down there for a bit.

Considering we're talking a potential ramp up in 2 to 3 weeks, I don't think Cindy making the SST's 27 to 29C will be much of an issue.

Makes sense that just a TS wouldn't have that much effect and it was blue in the Gulf even before Cindy formed. Not sure why they even show that map on Wunderground if it doesn't mean anything unless maybe it just means you won't see rapid development in the cooler areas.

[RL3AO]

Gulf waters look stirred up from Cindy for now so this may keep things in check down there for a bit.

Considering we're talking a potential ramp up in 2 to 3 weeks, I don't think Cindy making the SST's 27 to 29C will be much of an issue.

Makes sense that just a TS wouldn't have that much effect and it was blue in the Gulf even before Cindy formed. Not sure why they even show that map on Wunderground if it doesn't mean anything unless maybe it just means you won't see rapid development in the cooler areas.

Tropical Tidbits has a really good SST page. Gives you a better idea of the actual temps. The Caribbean being below average in September sounds like a negative, but that can still be insanely warm water. If you get favorable atmospheric conditions (low shear/moist air) over a below average Gulf/Caribbean in September, you can still get a category 5.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[Alyono]

this one is a pure phantom. Even the para has nothing

[RL3AO]

Information about the new version of HWRF coming in late July.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn17-80hwrf.htm

[TheStormExpert]

this one is a pure phantom. Even the para has nothing

What are you talking about!? Just yesterday you were saying how there looked to be an active monsoon trough which would likely lead to an active season. Besides the GFS-Para is an even worse model when compared to the GFS.

[Alyono]

this one is a pure phantom. Even the para has nothing

What are you talking about!? Just yesterday you were saying how there looked to be an active monsoon trough which would likely lead to an active season. Besides the GFS-Para is an even worse model when compared to the GFS.

you really need to take time to understand NWP and actually read what I post

Yesterday, I said that the MU had a storm in response to a poster saying no model had anything. I said nothing about whether or not it is a phantom.

There is one MAJOR difference between this one and Cindy. I was confident enough regarding Cindy's formation that I was able to let clients now about it nearly 2 weeks prior to genesis. This one, not a chance I would make that kind of a call

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS and GFS Para have B.O.C storm now in long range.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS-Para has a sloppy mess in the western gulf at 16z.

[SFLcane]

cmc with a capverde hurricane recurving close pass to NC.

[stormlover2013]

Goood ole Cmc lol

[chaser1]

Goood ole Cmc lol

Looks like the 0Z GFS has replaced the CMC with its own T.S. forming in the MDR to threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or S.E. Conus. Yeah, I think i'll hold out for at least 3 or 4 concurrent model runs before hoisting the flag.

[TheStormExpert]

Either there's something wrong with the GFS or it's right with showing development SE of the Cape Verde Islands in 78-84hrs on it's 06z run. The 00z Euro shows nada for the next 10 days at least.

[GCANE]

That surface low, that GFS is showing coming off Africa in about 72 hrs, looks interesting.
It'll start will an UL HIgh just to its north and will track along to about midway in the Atlantic.
At that time, UL winds in the Atlantic look more favorable with no big ULL.
Once the wave gets to the islands, it looks like an anticyclone may develop over it.

[weathaguyry]

That surface low, that GFS is showing coming off Africa in about 72 hrs, looks interesting.
It'll start will an UL HIgh just to its north and will track along to about midway in the Atlantic.
At that time, UL winds in the Atlantic look more favorable with no big ULL.
Once the wave gets to the islands, it looks like an anticyclone may develop over it.

I'm pretty sure that having 2 MDR storms form before July 1st would be a pretty significant indicator for an active hurricane season!