2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[AxaltaRacing24]

Model frustration continues with the Euro and GFS swapping places by the looks of it--latest GFS run shows development and the Euro showing nothing but weak waves out through 96h. What happened to the aligned consistency we saw yesterday?

That doesn't exist this season.

[Cpv17]

If this wave doesn't develop by the time it reaches the Caribbean then the Euro will probably show development with it again by the time it reaches there, but probably wouldn't develop it till it reaches the western Caribbean. That area seems to be the hot spot and that kind of seems to be trend with the models. They show development when they first come off the coast of Africa only to drop them a day or two later and then pick back up on them again in a few days once further west.

[chaser1]

Something to keep in mind is that quite possibly Atlantic conditions are at some point where they're slowly becoming ever so slowly more favorable, but the borderline day to day dynamics continue to dip in and out of all the necessary perimeters to more easily foster development. Anyway, perhaps this is why the models were largely showing little to nothing just days ago but are now showing systems trying to develop, then soon dropping them altogether. I suppose if this were true, than we'll begin to see a progression of more consistent run after run forecasts depicting these systems in the 1-2 weeks to come. That's not at all to say I believe tropical systems will all struggle to form until then, just that the various global models might begin to do a better job forecasting development when conditions further improve.

[Cpv17]

At the end of the Euro run it basically has a hurricane coming off of Africa and it develops 92L into a depression while it's over south Florida. I guess conditions are more favorable for development over land now than over water lol

[otowntiger]

Something to keep in mind is that quite possibly Atlantic conditions are at some point where they're slowly becoming ever so slowly more favorable, but the borderline day to day dynamics continue to dip in and out of all the necessary perimeters to more easily foster development. Anyway, perhaps this is why the models were largely showing little to nothing just days ago but are now showing systems trying to develop, then soon dropping them altogether. I suppose if this were true, than we'll begin to see a progression of more consistent run after run forecasts depicting these systems in the 1-2 weeks to come. That's not at all to say I believe tropical systems will all struggle to form until then, just that the various global models might begin to do a better job forecasting development when conditions further improve.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I'd like to see what the pro mets think.

[NDG]

The GFS has been just horrible past its 60-72 hrs forecast, from developing tropical waves too soon in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic to not developing systems in the western Atlantic basin past its 60-72 hr range. Just to remind people.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The GFS has been just horrible past its 60-72 hrs forecast, from developing tropical waves too soon in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic to not developing systems in the western Atlantic basin past its 60-72 hr range. Just to remind people.

The GFS Ishows a joke of a model and should be fixed

[chaser1]

The GFS has been just horrible past its 60-72 hrs forecast, from developing tropical waves too soon in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic to not developing systems in the western Atlantic basin past its 60-72 hr range. Just to remind people.

The GFS Ishows a joke of a model and should be fixed

For the model myopic...this was just two days ago from the EURO:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
Just sharin' the love lol. The GFS owns no patent on inconsistency this year.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks a tad quick for 92l, likely the energy from the wave east of the ULL low atm being
depicted as spinning up in the GOM.

[gatorcane]

This kindaof sums up the upgraded GFS and ECMWF this year.

From Harvey's NHC discussion on 8/18 5AM EST:

The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
is very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF
global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the
cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they
might forecast the next time

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0842.shtml

[cycloneye]

Maybe there is some hope to see something in MDR by the end of the month?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Maybe there is some hope to see something in MDR by the end of the month?

The J or K storm? (Assuming 92L eventually forms)

[Alyono]

Maybe there is some hope to see something in MDR by the end of the month?

my impression of the models and MDR development

"WOLF WOLF"

They've cried wolf a bit too often for me to take their forecasts of genesis seriously

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS shows something off the SE coast that actually starts around 144hrs or so. Something to watch I suppose




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[WeatherEmperor]

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[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like a strong TS at 198hrs. I will stop here as we are entering fantasy land soon




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[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a strong TS at 198hrs. I will stop here as we are entering fantasy land soon



92L I believe
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[Weather150]

The Euro has been showing over the past few runs a wave coming of West Africa around Aug 25th and developing as it progresses across. This is still many days away, and as we have seen the potential can diminish as the wave comes off. Still, this could be the next thing to watch after Harvey/92L.

[Weather150]

Maybe there is some hope to see something in MDR by the end of the month?

my impression of the models and MDR development

"WOLF WOLF"

They've cried wolf a bit too often for me to take their forecasts of genesis seriously

Lots of false alarms.

[Blinhart]

OK first off this going to be a complete off the wall joking post.

After Aug. 21st's Solar Eclipse all the weather in the world will be completely unpredictable and we won't know exactly what will be happening no more than 48 hours in advance, oh wait the weather is already like that. However the solar eclipse will bring some crazy new things to the weather that we haven't seen in a while. So lets just see what will happen.