2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1461 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:12 pm

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So the 12z GFS continues to show a big gyre of low pressure in the WC in the 10-14 day window. It is outside the window of the Euro and Canadian so we have to wait until this weekend to see if they start showing this too.

I think they key is where does the base of the low pressure gyre setup? Is it the Epac side or the WC side? I am thinking that since the atmosphere is more and more resembling La Nina, the base would setup on the WC side because sinking air is more likely in the Epac in these conditions.

The last key point is in regards to Florida, usually storms that have hit Florida in October usually form in the second or third week of October not the first week. Typically the late season cold fronts that push tropical cyclones ENE into Florida show up after the middle of the month. Does anybody think this matters or maybe not?


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1462 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:37 pm

Its definately the season for the SW Carib. its frothy and its energy is untapped :idea:

usually this much model storms are not an anomaly.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1463 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:25 pm

ECMWF still lowering pressures in the SW caribbean.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1464 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:ECMWF still lowering pressures in the SW caribbean.


Yes I just noticed that too. If the Euro and other models continue this lowering of pressures in furute runs going into this weekend, we need to keep a very close eye.


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1465 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:27 pm

Wet phase of MJO arriving in the Western Caribbean and Eastern EPAC next week. You would think there will be some kind of development either in the Western Caribbean or EPAC and if the big Eastern CONUS trough materializes as the global models suggest, it could pull the area northward:

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1466 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:49 pm

I guess there have been no more interesting model runs for this area since this thread is dead. :wink:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1467 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:10 pm

Nothing of real significance in the model runs the past 24 hours except some hints of lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean. I am pretty confident a major hurricane will develop in the Caribbean (quite possibly Western Caribbean) sometime in October.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1468 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:23 pm

otowntiger wrote:I guess there have been no more interesting model runs for this area since this thread is dead. :wink:

There were 8 posts yesterday, define dead? :lol:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1469 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:47 pm

Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm? :lol:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1470 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:49 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm? :lol:

Pretty much
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1471 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:23 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm? :lol:

Pretty much
Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads. :wink:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1472 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:18 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm? :lol:

Pretty much
Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads. :wink:


A little horse sense goes a long way here. Models have been hinting at lowering pressures in the distant future which is consistent with climo (especially in an active season) along with a favorable phase of the mjo. It is highly probable that this region will produce in the next 40 days.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1473 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:03 pm

GFS forms something around 264 hrs near Panama
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1474 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:53 pm

Strongest signal yet from GEFS:

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1475 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:43 pm

gatorcane wrote:Strongest signal yet from GEFS:

[[/img]


Image

Here is the 384hr forecast of the GEFS. I know it is total fantasy...but the important thing is to look at the signals of lowering pressures...and that is what this shows. Lets see what happens in the next few days if this continues



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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1476 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:21 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm? :lol:

Pretty much
Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads. :wink:

Floridians carrying the weight of this site in the face of irma...to be fair our friends in the carribean are in full.recovery mode as we were after irma...texas season.about over...plenty of recovery operations all.over sofla these days, power, tree trimmers and debris pickup..i.have daily.power outages, less than a minute but the grid isnt stable
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1477 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:28 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Pretty much
Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads. :wink:

Floridians carrying the weight of this site in the face of irma...to be fair our friends in the carribean are in full.recovery mode as we were after irma...texas season.about over...plenty of recovery operations all.over sofla these days, power, tree trimmers and debris pickup..i.have daily.power outages, less than a minute but the grid isnt stable


We also continue to lose power, like you said its brief but still happening on a regular basis since Irma.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1478 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:32 pm

The western Caribbean has me intrigued around/just after the turn of the month. Pretty good ensemble signal for something despite the range.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1479 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:17 am

The Euro ensembles are showing lowering pressure across the Western Caribbean in around 9 to 10 days:

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1480 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:48 am

yeah that part of the Caribbean has alot of untapped energy for a big one up towards the eastern gulf coast. Just the lowering pressures....watch it very closely.
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