2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET going with development:

[TheStormExpert]

once we get closer to formation

What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?

I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.

Also means to take any track and intensity with an extra HUGE grain of salt for now.

[toad strangler]

12Z UKMET going with development:

Verbatim that Ukie look has November climo all over it. NE over central Cuba and OTS

[blp]

12Z UKMET going with development:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/1wizhyq1y7/ukm2.2017102612.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png[/]

Yep and in the right area. Also looks to have some EPAC development but weaker than the WCAR.

[Alyono]

once we get closer to formation

What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?

I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.

what has a higher chance of busting are the modelologists

The models are very good, but should be a starting point. Cumulus parameterization remains a major issue in the models, which will make them highly suspect in genesis cases like this. We just saw it 2 weeks ago with Nate

[blp]

What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?

I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.

what has a higher chance of busting are the modelologists

The models are very good, but should be a starting point. Cumulus parameterization remains a major issue in the models, which will make them highly suspect in genesis cases like this. We just saw it 2 weeks ago with Nate

I guess the resonable thing is to look at the ensembles.

[gatorcane]

The Happy Hour GEFS remains on Caribbean side with many members showing development:

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM back to development:

[toad strangler]

18z GFS OP definitely took steps to W Caribbean and ensembles have been there all along

[gatorcane]

And in the very long-range there are a few ensembles showing hurricanes into South Florida or vicinity of:

[joey]

And in the very long-range there are a few ensembles showing hurricanes into South Florida or vicinity of:

And cmc has been showing this for a few days no too watching

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Canadian very persistant




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[gatorcane]

Euro now showing a 1005mb low in the NW Caribbean moving NW and UKMET with development also showing a system heading slowly north

[toad strangler]

6z GFS tried to pop a L in the SW Caribbean at about the same time the 0z Euro does (240 hours) but then quickly shifts development back to the EPAC shortly thereafter

[ronjon]

Gator, very significant timing differences between the UKMET and ECM however. UK seems to align with canadian and Navgem with Euro the latest in development. GFS seems to be somewhere inbetween those two camps.

[TheStormExpert]

The latest 06z GFS and 00z Euro are now starting to show a consensus of something brewing in the NW Caribbean around 240hrs. (10 days). From there the 06z GFS moves it into Belize due to building high pressure to its north while if the 00z Euro went further it would likely have it on a general north heading.

[gatorcane]

06z GEFS. Positioning is no bueno for Florida particularly Southern Florida:

[SFLcane]

Probability from EPS is up to 70% for a TD to form in the Western Caribbean next week.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/921344138284498950

[SFLcane]

Overnight CMC with 2 Florida landfalls lol..lets hope its wrong as it usually is.

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/bJJwCJp.png[/img]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/gzYBVSS.png[/img]