2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Weather150]

Another SAL outbreak expected to happen starting this coming Monday.

Nothing unusual for this time of year.

I know, just stating what the models are showing through the next 5 days. We are going to be in a downtime for a while before things heat up as people have been saying.

[otowntiger]

Our friends Mr. Shear and Mrs. Sal combined should keep us safe for a while it looks like.

[Blown Away]

Off to another quantity over quality systems season...

[tolakram]

So we don't trust the GFS long term but by golly those GFS shear forecasts must be solid gold.

This is a stuck record in at least two threads now. Conditions will be unfavorable for development until close to mid August. Unfavorable means UNFAVORABLE.

[chaser1]

Keep calm and set Phasers to stun

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be showing a change towards a possible increase in late in the run so around the 5th with lowering pressures, may show development in future runs around that time

[TheStormExpert]

From Crown Weather's Rob Lightbown.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/888052570228436992




 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/888055184273944578

[Steve]

Off to another quantity over quality systems season...

That's more often the case than I think a lot of people want to say. Environment Canada has what is probably a better graphic than what we usually use when discussing the climatological peak. It demonstrates pretty well the different types of storms one would expect at a given time from Depressions+ to Storms+ to Hurricanes+ to Major Hurricanes.



What is interesting to me about the early season so far, is the early August potential as I don't usually look to the first or second week of August for a pulse. It happens sometimes, but many of the last several years featured later-season pulses. But as we can see from the chart, there are an average of approximately 30 storms out of 100 years at the beginning of August whereas once we get to September 1st, it's like 80 storms out of 100 years. Less than 10% (a good bit less) of the years have a major in early August. It crosses 10% around the 20th and peaks around 20% around the Peak (September 10/11). I was thinking (until just recently) around 8/25 on the timing of increased activity with maybe a little break in September. The difference could be that this year, we only get a short break between potentially very favorable MJO/CCKW conditions in early August and then the normal peak weeks of the season (through mid October) where the environment is generally favorable anyway without the aid of enhanced migrations of precipitation. We're only 3 weeks out until August 10th. So we won't have to wait long to see if we get anything "quality" earlier than I would have guessed.

[Sciencerocks]

The next chance at some Atlantic development is in the central Atlantic around 48-96 hours...

[AutoPenalti]

The next chance at some Atlantic development is in the central Atlantic around 48-96 hours...

And then shears out in 24 hours, lol.

[Weather150]

The next chance at some Atlantic development is in the central Atlantic around 48-96 hours...

Don't bet on it.

[Sciencerocks]

The next chance at some Atlantic development is in the central Atlantic around 48-96 hours...

Don't bet on it.

Wouldn't be wise, but it fits with the pattern so far this season.

[tolakram]

The new GFS, which this is, rarely showed anything. Interesting. Conditions bad for the next couple of weeks so if anything happens I suspect another short lived storm. The 12Z euro shows it as well but not nearly as well defined. Some blob watching ahead!

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro seemed to show a possibility of things getting going by day 9 but it does seem to indicate that things could get going around day 10 while the GFS has nothing for 15 days so who knows which is going to be right

[AutoPenalti]

The 12zEuro seemed to show a possibility of things getting going by day 9 but it does seem to indicate that things could get going around day 10 while the GFS has nothing for 15 days so who knows which is going to be right

Well, average them out lol

13 days till we see some activity.

[Weather150]

12z GFS a bit more robust with the wave that would come off the West African coast July 29th.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/edpiotrowski/status/888416601258811397

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS is showing a possible change at hr 360 with a low near 35w, just noise for now but could indicate a change towards more favorable conditions

[Steve]

Its 12z forms about 4 lows off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts heading up and out around the northern periphery of the Atlantic high. Nothing looks that strong or even necessarily tropical. But maybe some of this helps knock out the very high SSTA's up that way.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

[AtlanticWind]

12z Euro tries to develop a system off Africa in 72 to 144 hrs,also has a strong vorticity coming off at 240 hrs.