2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF going with some slow development again of this wave that will exit Africa this week, how the run ends:

[Kingarabian]

12Z ECMWF going with some slow development again of this wave that will exit Africa this week, how the run ends:

[img]https://s10.postimg.org/g0g3jmc61/ecmwf_mslpa_Norm_atltropics_11.png[/mg]

I'm guessing the Euro will drop it in its next run and the GFS will start showing a cat.5. That's been the story of season thus far.

[Weather150]

I noticed that the GFS and Euro are agreeing that the EPAC will go quiet mainly after Hilary passes away out of the scene. Once it quiets down, Atlantic's time will come.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I noticed that the GFS and Euro are agreeing that the EPAC will go quiet mainly after Hilary passes away out of the scene. Once it quiets down, Atlantic's time will come.

That could be true, but it could also mean all basins go quiet. EPAC shutting down should help the Atlantic though.

[Weather150]

12z Euro EPS FWIW.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z ECMWF going with some slow development again of this wave that will exit Africa this week, how the run ends:

[img]https://s10.postimg.org/g0g3jmc61/ecmwf_mslpa_Norm_atltropics_11.png[/mg]

I'm guessing the Euro will drop it in its next run and the GFS will start showing a cat.5. That's been the story of season thus far.

This is the upgraded GFS, not the old one, remember that.

The GFS-p was the one that was conservative compared to its predecessor.

[gatorcane]

Really strong signal from the 18Z GFS ensembles in long-range. The GFS-op shows something too. This appears to be the wave to roll off Africa this week and moves slowly west across the MDR. Watch for upcoming GFS op runs to potentially bring this feature back even more organized than it has now.

[Weather150]

Really strong signal from the 18Z GFS ensembles in long-range. The GFS-op shows something too. This appears to be the wave to roll off Africa this week and moves slowly west across the MDR. Watch for upcoming GFS op runs to potentially bring this feature back even more organized than it has now.

Wow, big signal. Question is, will it last?

[Ivanhater]

Definitely looking like we will start ramping up at the start of August

[beoumont]

Definitely looking like we will start ramping up at the start of August

"

I've learned never to use the word "definitely" when referring to any forecast concerning tropical cyclone formation; even though climatology backs up such optimism.

[Alyono]

Really strong signal from the 18Z GFS ensembles in long-range. The GFS-op shows something too. This appears to be the wave to roll off Africa this week and moves slowly west across the MDR. Watch for upcoming GFS op runs to potentially bring this feature back even more organized than it has now.

12Z had it in the Bay of Campeche

[TheStormExpert]

That is one scary potent Bermuda High if it were to verify. No wonder the three recent runs had it going into likely Central America, Mexico, and the Bay of Campeche. By the way Alyono what is your thoughts on this, do you think it is a phantom or not?

[Alyono]

I think if something forms it would be a Colin 2010-like storm. Something that forms in the quiet period that does not amount to much

3rd week of August us when you know what will hit the fan

[PTrackerLA]

I think if something forms it would be a Colin 2010-like storm. Something that forms in the quiet period that does not amount to much

3rd week of August us when you know what will hit the fan

The Bermuda high setup seems somewhat ominous for North American interests if this pattern holds through peak season. No one what knows what conditions will really be like 3+ weeks from now but I've seen too many experts citing strong evidence for quite a run/above average activity. Care to elaborate on your thoughts on what to expect? I figure we have at least another week before things start get interesting in long range model runs.

[Ntxw]

I think if something forms it would be a Colin 2010-like storm. Something that forms in the quiet period that does not amount to much

3rd week of August us when you know what will hit the fan

The Bermuda high setup seems somewhat ominous for North American interests if this pattern holds through peak season. No one what knows what conditions will really be like 3+ weeks from now but I've seen too many experts citing strong evidence for quite a run/above average activity. Care to elaborate on your thoughts on what to expect? I figure we have at least another week before things start get interesting in long range model runs.

A displacement of the Bermuda/Azores high to the west would definitely tend to steer things ominously. A stronger than normal high though keeps higher than normal pressures across the basin. This is why July is so unfavorable because it is seasonal apex of the high. As the season goes on it naturally weakens and activity picks up.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS and GEFS backing off any development next 384 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS and GEFS backing off any development next 384 hours.

Not surprised.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro drops it.

[Nimbus]

So we are watching ripples in the 591 isobar line at the 379 hour range?
Will the Bermuda even high be there? We had a nice TUTT lat month or so.

[Alyono]

I think if something forms it would be a Colin 2010-like storm. Something that forms in the quiet period that does not amount to much

3rd week of August us when you know what will hit the fan

The Bermuda high setup seems somewhat ominous for North American interests if this pattern holds through peak season. No one what knows what conditions will really be like 3+ weeks from now but I've seen too many experts citing strong evidence for quite a run/above average activity. Care to elaborate on your thoughts on what to expect? I figure we have at least another week before things start get interesting in long range model runs.

the high can change positions easily by the time the 3rd week of August rolls around.

From what I am seeing, I do not think we see anything of consequence before August 17-20