2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is a reverse from the 00z Euro. Has a much stronger high forcing the system west @ 192hrs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro moves it off the Yucatan SW toward the BOC. Hmmm. Two runs and two very different results. Also, it is weaker than the 0z run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro is a reverse from the 00z Euro. Has a much stronger high forcing the system west @ 192hrs.

That last run of the ECMWF struck me as off anyway. It was also developing a random low in the MDR.

[Florida1118]

Here's a comparison of the 12z vs last nights 00z. Notice there's also no MDR system on the 12z either.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is a reverse from the 00z Euro. Has a much stronger high forcing the system west @ 192hrs.

That last run of the ECMWF struck me as off anyway. It was also developing a random low in the MDR.

It's still a long way out but its similar to the GFS in showing a stronger high.

[cycloneye]

We will stay in this thread posting the model runs until NHC begins to mention it in the TWO or if there is an incipient area of disturbed weather.

[LarryWx]

The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then to move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than those from the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The CMC ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread fwiw.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS on day 7.Then it moves thru Yucatan to BOC and makes landfall near Tampico,Mexico as a TS.

[TheStormExpert]

With the two main global models now in agreement with this moving into the BoC then into Mexico I think that is the likely final landfall destination at the moment.

[gatorcane]

That is quite a ridge keeping it down into Mexico and the BOC. We have seen so many of these types of Yucatan / BOC / Mexico tracks the past 7+ years. Models were kind of trending that way the past couple of days so was thinking that could be a likely outcome.

[NDG]

Let me remind everyone that models do a horrible job in a sypnotic pattern past a 5-7 day range to say that we are seeing a trend towards a Mexican landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

Keep in mind I've noticed models early on in the WCarb tend to have a bias to the north as it tends to underestimate the strength of a ridge. See Alex 10 or Earl 16 for example.

[gatorcane]

Let me remind everyone that models do a horrible job in a sypnotic pattern past a 5-7 day range to say that we are seeing a trend towards a Mexican landfall.

18Z GFS ensembles now have 4 members developing the NE part of the gyre and sending a low through the Yucatan channel / Western Cuba area. These ensembles develop a low faster and so the low hits the weakness before ridging builds in. The rest of them are generally weak and west over the Yucatan (and mostly over the BOC when you get further out though still a wide spread across the Gulf). The 12Z GFS ensembles did not have any ensembles that far east. I agree it is early to call the outcome here so we just wait and see. Still thinking some kind of low ends up over the Yucatan/BOC area ultimately.

[floridasun78]

Let me remind everyone that models do a horrible job in a sypnotic pattern past a 5-7 day range to say that we are seeing a trend towards a Mexican landfall.

18Z GFS ensembles now have 4 members developing the NE part of the gyre and sending a low through the Yucatan channel / Western Cuba area. These ensembles develop a low faster and so the low hits the weakness before ridging builds in. The rest of them are generally weak and west over the Yucatan (and mostly over the BOC when you get further out though still a wide spread across the Gulf). The 12Z GFS ensembles did not have any ensembles that far east. I agree it is early to call the outcome here so we just wait and see. Still thinking some kind of low ends up over the Yucatan/BOC area ultimately.

https://s24.postimg.org/e37z38emt/gfs-e ... atl_29.png

we have better idea by Friday models run it closer to day models want form it

[South Texas Storms]

I'm tending to think we could see a system like Alex from 2010 with this disturbance. However, confidence remains quite low as this is still about a week away from possibly developing.

[weathaguyry]

If this gets organized fast, we can see something like a Claudette 03'/Alex 10'. If organization gets delayed a bit, then Arlene 11' looks to be a good analog. If this thing really can't get its act together, it could pull a Barry 13' or Danielle 16'.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian shifts west to Louisiana, while the 0z GFS and GFS Parallel are indicating a TS hit in TX 8-10 days from now.

[chaser1]

12z Euro is a reverse from the 00z Euro. Has a much stronger high forcing the system west @ 192hrs.

Oh EURO, where'd ya hide the GOM storm? That low is starting to look pretty shallow up till 192 hrs.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is more north but weaker than its 12z run. Similar to the 00z GFS.

The pressure gradient will relax
some during mid week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure
is expected to develop over the southwest Caribbean by mid week,
and shift gradually northwest through Friday.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS again is Mexico bound to a landfall north of Tampico but much closer to Brownsville of a Tropical Storm but a little bit stronger than 00z run.It stalls just off coast at Brownsville Hermine comes to focus.