2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[GeneratorPower]

why do we even take the MU seriously given how bad it verifies and its run to run consistency. See what it is doing in the BOB now. Absolutely no run to run consistency from it. It is absolutely worthless

A couple of points. First, I'm grateful for the time you spend here. Always enjoy reading your posts. I wish we could all agree to call it the GFS. Calling it the MU causes confusion on the board. The reason it is watched is frankly because it's free, it's available, it's frequently run, and it has historically been used by the NWS and all divisions thereof. I'm sure if the ECMWF was as freely available we'd be using that. Since it isn't, the GFS provides a decent substitute. I am always happy when some of our promets and others with access to the full ECMWF post legal snips of the output.

[Kingarabian]

Virtually every model is on board with eastern EPAC development yet the GFS is not. So we'll find out soon if something is really wrong with this model sooner or later.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has a phantom storm in the long range in the MDR which is as believable as Santa Claus

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS to an extent seem to spin up a decent low off of southern Texas. Remains over water for 24hrs-ish before moving back in land. Could see a TD/weak TS form if it stays over water long enough and shear becomes favorable.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/868461996680896514

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/868461996680896514

Yeah wasn't sure if it was worth mentioning just yet. Yesterday's 00z Euro had it then 12z dropped it, and today's 00z run brought it back.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has it again. Looks like a decent rain maker.

[Hammy]

Euro's run looks similar to how (and ironically when) Allison in 2001 formed.

[Kingarabian]

Check the 00z Euro @ 240hrs. Down to 1000mb with a high in place keeping the system in the GOM. Looks pretty sheared though.

[Kingarabian]

There's such a discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro, it's really astonishing. I think they generally agree that there will be areas of low pressures in the eastern EPAC, and near the GOM. The Euro is showing favorable conditions thus showing development, but the GFS continues to show little to no development.

Either the GFS will perform a coup on the European (the Euro continues to push back development, so the GFS has that in its favor), or the GFS has truly degraded and we're left with one reliable model.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS caves, now showing development in the EPAC like the Euro.

Still doesn't show anything in the GOM. Not even a weak vort.

[weathaguyry]

06z GFS caves, now showing development in the EPAC like the Euro.

Still doesn't show anything in the GOM. Not even a weak vort.

The GFS shows the GOM storm, just closer to Florida, it also shows a pretty broad EPAC low, so the question is will it be a weak/moderate TS in the EPAC or will it be a TD/ Broad Low

[NDG]

06z GFS caves, now showing development in the EPAC like the Euro.

Still doesn't show anything in the GOM. Not even a weak vort.

Even the Euro has not been that consistent in development over the EPAC in the short term and regarding its forecast in its 8-10 day range I wouldn't bet on it as it is almost just as bad as the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS caves, now showing development in the EPAC like the Euro.

Still doesn't show anything in the GOM. Not even a weak vort.

Even the Euro has not been that consistent in development over the EPAC in the short term and regarding its forecast in its 8-10 day range I wouldn't bet on it as it is almost just as bad as the GFS.

Yes it may not be as consistent as in the past, but the Euro seems to very rarely show phantom storms when compared to the GFS(especially on the Atlantic side). Therefore it showing and hinting at mischief in the Western GoM in it's 8-10 day period should be something just to monitor. Besides that region is generally favored for TC development early on in the season.

[boca]

The GFS 06 shows development closer to Florida but out in fantasyland out around 360 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS 06 shows development closer to Florida but out in fantasyland out around 360 hours.

Now that I wouldn't believe!

[tarheelprogrammer]

The models really seem to be struggling this year in the tropics. In my novice opinion. One minute both show a storm, and then both drop it. One shows a storm in 140 hours, and the other shows one near the same spot in 300. Very odd how poor they are doing. Is the overall global pattern becoming more difficult to get a handle on?

[LarryWx]

Honestly, that seems like the norm for the models to me.

[stormlover2013]

Nothing has developed yet, so no struggle by models yet

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: Honestly, that seems like the norm for the models to me.

For some reason I feel like they were more accurate a few years ago. It seems that there were not as many phantom storms on the ECMWF or GFS. I could no doubt be wrong.