2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS and CMC with hurricanes that head NE into Cuba missing South Florida well to the SE. But is long-range and depends on strength of front.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z GFS closes a low around 19N 85W in 180 hours, and does GFS-ey things with the low through 252 hours, where it's basically at it's origin point. Afterwards, ejected to the ENE. While I'm putting faith in the GFS in regards to the initial development of a possible low, I'm having a hard time buying the following track scenario, especially in that 180-252 hour time frame.
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:995mb strengthening in the NW caribbean..12z GFS
Edit.. smacks cuba possibly as a minimal cat 1 hurricane. Could miss FL all together
It's just an OP run. Ensembles more telling this far out. All this means is strong signal.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:995mb strengthening in the NW caribbean..12z GFS
Edit.. smacks cuba possibly as a minimal cat 1 hurricane. Could miss FL all together
It's just an OP run. Ensembles more telling this far out. All this means is strong signal.
indeed sir..
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:GFS and CMC with hurricanes that head NE into Cuba missing South Florida well to the SE. But is long-range and depends on strength of front.
12z NAVGEM joins the party
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- chris_fit
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Next up, EURO starts running @ 1:45 EST
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
After a surprisingly active 6z GEFS, the 12z GEFS is surprisingly quiet vs all recent runs.
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
There is light vort action going on deep in S Caribbean at 216 hours
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z Euro ends with very weak LP in the far S Caribbean in the middle of weak elongated vort signature. Could very well be the beginnings of genesis. We will see at 0z.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Dr. Jeff Masters was talking about the models showing something forming in the western carribean late next week.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irela ... -next-week
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irela ... -next-week
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hurricanelonny
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.
not happening
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- CourierPR
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago
More
Is NCEP MJO right? mad dash to phase 8 means 1 more Caribbean to Se us threat on table. 8/1/2/3 in 85 had Juan and Kate!
May not be over yet
Just saw this tweet by JB regarding possible Caribbean development.
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Is NCEP MJO right? mad dash to phase 8 means 1 more Caribbean to Se us threat on table. 8/1/2/3 in 85 had Juan and Kate!
May not be over yet
Just saw this tweet by JB regarding possible Caribbean development.
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The models are showing some strong cold fronts in the long-range.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:The models are showing some strong cold fronts in the long-range.
It's almost like we're entering late-October...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
the signals for strong front (s) keep getting more compelling as climo begins to work its magic. I'd expect any late season development to the south to not impact the US...But of course I'm watching as always.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
So far nothing on 18z gfs lol...
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Shifts the gyre inland over Central America.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.
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