2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

GFS and CMC with hurricanes that head NE into Cuba missing South Florida well to the SE. But is long-range and depends on strength of front.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS closes a low around 19N 85W in 180 hours, and does GFS-ey things with the low through 252 hours, where it's basically at it's origin point. Afterwards, ejected to the ENE. While I'm putting faith in the GFS in regards to the initial development of a possible low, I'm having a hard time buying the following track scenario, especially in that 180-252 hour time frame.

[toad strangler]

995mb strengthening in the NW caribbean..12z GFS

Edit.. smacks cuba possibly as a minimal cat 1 hurricane. Could miss FL all together

It's just an OP run. Ensembles more telling this far out. All this means is strong signal.

[SFLcane]

995mb strengthening in the NW caribbean..12z GFS

Edit.. smacks cuba possibly as a minimal cat 1 hurricane. Could miss FL all together

It's just an OP run. Ensembles more telling this far out. All this means is strong signal.

indeed sir..

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS and CMC with hurricanes that head NE into Cuba missing South Florida well to the SE. But is long-range and depends on strength of front.

12z NAVGEM joins the party




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[chris_fit]

Next up, EURO starts running @ 1:45 EST

[LarryWx]

After a surprisingly active 6z GEFS, the 12z GEFS is surprisingly quiet vs all recent runs.

[toad strangler]

There is light vort action going on deep in S Caribbean at 216 hours

[toad strangler]

12z Euro ends with very weak LP in the far S Caribbean in the middle of weak elongated vort signature. Could very well be the beginnings of genesis. We will see at 0z.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Dr. Jeff Masters was talking about the models showing something forming in the western carribean late next week.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irela ... -next-week

[TheStormExpert]

Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.

[Alyono]

Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.

not happening

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago
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Is NCEP MJO right? mad dash to phase 8 means 1 more Caribbean to Se us threat on table. 8/1/2/3 in 85 had Juan and Kate!
May not be over yet

Just saw this tweet by JB regarding possible Caribbean development.

[gatorcane]

The models are showing some strong cold fronts in the long-range.

[RL3AO]

The models are showing some strong cold fronts in the long-range.

It's almost like we're entering late-October...

[psyclone]

the signals for strong front (s) keep getting more compelling as climo begins to work its magic. I'd expect any late season development to the south to not impact the US...But of course I'm watching as always.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/920390654915764228

[WeatherEmperor]

So far nothing on 18z gfs lol...




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[TheStormExpert]

Shifts the gyre inland over Central America.

[TheStormExpert]

Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.