TheStormExpert wrote:Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.
Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development
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TheStormExpert wrote:Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.
WeatherEmperor wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.
WeatherEmperor wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.
Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development
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CourierPR wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.
Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development
You really expect EPAC development as late season and LaNina approach?
Alyono wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.
not happening
toad strangler wrote:Alyono wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.
not happening
Alyono says no
Frank2 wrote:Gatorcane, glad you mentioned the cold front issue - even though the models might indicate development, that late in the season the polar jet is forcing fronts south of 30N every 3-5 days, so whatever does form if it does, will be influenced by a front. Wilma as we know was influenced by a front, and actually became ST immediately after crossing Florida, so a lot more to consider than just a month earlier...
Frank
LarryWx wrote:I don't know about end of season, but trends since 0Z have been toward a lower FL threat around 11/1. The threat of a TC hit on FL from a Caribbean or Gulf genesis goes way down after 11/5 per 150+ years of climo.
psyclone wrote:LarryWx wrote:I don't know about end of season, but trends since 0Z have been toward a lower FL threat around 11/1. The threat of a TC hit on FL from a Caribbean or Gulf genesis goes way down after 11/5 per 150+ years of climo.
while the official season ends 11-30 the practical answer depends on where you are. For Texas it's pretty much over now absent something very anomalous. For the western Caribbean it goes on. For Florida the answer seems to lie with the arrival of persistent mid latitude weather...the net effect is Florida's late season hurricane risk tends to taper off very quickly and that transition is typically late October. There are some pretty good signals that some solid fronts are on the docket for the east including florida before the end of the month which would fit climo nicely...where many storms either move into central America or move northeasterly well south of the peninsula. Folks may remember a strong front immediately followed Wilma and ushered in a fall pattern back in 05.
SFLcane wrote:Hmmm...Now GFS in the epac lol. Well thankfully the 3 models that are showing development are
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Add the 00z FIM to the list for Western Caribbean development.
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