2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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AtlanticWind
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1261 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:50 pm

Looks like JMA shows some development thru 72 hours.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1262 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:51 pm

RL3AO wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NHC doesn't buy GFS scenario.


Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...



Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1263 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:02 pm

What about the waves rolling off of Africa any model support?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1264 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:05 pm

Euro at 48 hours.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1265 Postby Siker » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:05 pm

Well, the Euro seems to have a TD close to where the GFS forms one in 48 hours. It's the wave coming off Africa helping to spin up the current convection sitting off the coast it seems.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1266 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:17 pm

96 hours.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1267 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:18 pm

Yeah Euro has a vorticity in the same spot as the GFS at 96 hours ,only weaker.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1268 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:25 pm

120 hours.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1269 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:33 pm

Weaker this run. Ridge seems weaker also. Maybe another OTS?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1270 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:34 pm

Why would NHC bight GFS I mean nogaps has been horrible. Until for me personally I see real decent support from the ECMWF sorry I don't by it.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1271 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:49 pm

ec says nothing to see, move along
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1272 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:54 pm

Alyono wrote:ec says nothing to see, move along


Move along till 2018.. lol. I don't even think this massive mjo or kelvin wave will help. GFS will likely drop new phantom tc soon.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1273 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Alyono wrote:ec says nothing to see, move along


Move along till 2018.. lol. I don't even think this massive mjo or kelvin wave will help. GFS will likely drop new phantom tc soon.

I want to believe that the switch is finally being flipped on, but until the ECMWF shows it too it is hard to believe. Looking forward to seeing what the EPS says.
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1274 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:34 pm

Screw the ECMWF and use your own eyes IMHO. I don't really care what it says, because it's unreliable in the long term. This may be its worst year I've ever seen it. Same goes for the GFS which does now show a couple of developments, including 99L. That only took about 10 days. It has a recurve a week later from the low just off Africa. CMC looks more believable and does take a system toward SFL at the 10 day period. GFS shows a ripple down there, so it does follow along the wave.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1275 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:40 pm

Also QPF seems to be having the worst year that I've ever witnessed. I don't know if this is primarily due to the upgraded GFS, but it underestimates the 7 day precip totals week after week after week after week. For instance, consider the 7 day 12z which came out early this morning.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1502566568

South Central Louisiana has more than double that in less than 1/2 of a day vs. the entire 7 day period. Global models and corresponding contributions to various product outputs are becoming trash for whatever reason.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1276 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:57 pm

Steve wrote:Screw the ECMWF and use your own eyes IMHO. I don't really care what it says, because it's unreliable in the long term. This may be its worst year I've ever seen it. Same goes for the GFS which does now show a couple of developments, including 99L. That only took about 10 days. It has a recurve a week later from the low just off Africa. CMC looks more believable and does take a system toward SFL at the 10 day period. GFS shows a ripple down there, so it does follow along the wave.

Agree ,looking at the system off Africa it shows potential. Also 99L looks poised to develop and that really has little model support
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1277 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:05 pm

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1278 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:05 pm

12Z runs of GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM all have this already initialized at about 10N 30W and all are developing it.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1279 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:10 pm

What I can tell from COAMPS is that it will maintain as a moderate wave and track west into the Carib at this point.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1280 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:03 pm

Gfs stronger on east atlantic system at 18z so far.
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