2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[sma10]

It also pretty much maintains the same intensity throughout rather than blowing it up.

Yeah, maybe dry air issues?

But strange that it develops over the Cabo islands and moves all the way across to the Leewards. Not to say impossible, but very rare.

[hd44]

Massive convective feedback on gfs on the wave. Tossed the run out, will look at ensembles.


Just awful.

[sma10]

Massive convective feedback on gfs on the wave. Tossed the run out, will look at ensembles. Just awful.

Perhaps, perhaps. I think there are some other red flags too, as the track looks suspicious ... to send a TS that far south of west at such a slow speed does not seem to jibe (9-10 days just to reach 60W under a strong high?)

But the twave does actually look pretty impressive tonight so probably worth another look tomorrow.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks pretty impressive coming off Africa. Definitely a future invest.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/i ... 7&prod=irn

[RL3AO]

We can add NAM to the pile, just as I thought it was showing promise as far as accuracy--latest run has Harvey reaching Cat 5 and 92L developing into a storm within 3-4 days--both of which I think have about a 1% chance of happening at most.

Well you shouldn't have been using the 3km NAM or HRRR for hurricanes to begin with. Those models are designed for other purposes.

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro continues to show a storm developing off Africa around 96hrs and getting stronger into a hurricane as it recurves out to sea.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

We can add NAM to the pile, just as I thought it was showing promise as far as accuracy--latest run has Harvey reaching Cat 5 and 92L developing into a storm within 3-4 days--both of which I think have about a 1% chance of happening at most.

Well you shouldn't have been using the 3km NAM or HRRR for hurricanes to begin with. Those models are designed for other purposes.

Is the NAM's 12km better to use for tropical intensity?

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS and some other models are hinting at a wave train setting up. We shall see.

[jason1912]

GFS and some other models are hinting at a wave train setting up. We shall see.

Yep. That is one vigorous wave at the end of the run.

[gatorcane]

How the 18Z GFS ends. We'll see:

[Ntxw]

We can add NAM to the pile, just as I thought it was showing promise as far as accuracy--latest run has Harvey reaching Cat 5 and 92L developing into a storm within 3-4 days--both of which I think have about a 1% chance of happening at most.

Well you shouldn't have been using the 3km NAM or HRRR for hurricanes to begin with. Those models are designed for other purposes.

Is the NAM's 12km better to use for tropical intensity?

The NAM in general is not a good use for tropical systems. it is a mesoscale model and not meant for such purpose. It may have skill per say to view how much/where rain may fall in bands or where training might occur with dynamics etc.

[Kingarabian]

As usual once a AEW is about to splash down the models begin to realize conditions are not that conducive and begin to drop development.

12z Euro:

[WeatherEmperor]

I apologize if now is not the right time to post this while everybody is dealing with Harvey at the moment...but I wanted to show the GFS has a storm approaching the islands around 240hrs and turning NW into the open Atlantic in the longer ranges. This may be a phantom storm probably...but just wanted to let everybody know what the GFS is showing.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Hey WeatherEmperor, looks like it's the same wave that the Euro has dropped.

[jason1912]

GFS looks interesting in the MDR..

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey WeatherEmperor, looks like it's the same wave that the Euro has dropped.

Hi King!

Yes I agree with you. Here is what the GFS shows at 18z. More than likely its a phantom storm because none of the other models show this...but it is interesting to watch as the peak of the season approaches.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Massive escape alley there for recurve out to sea...

[WeatherEmperor]

Here it is again on the 0z GFS. Weaker...butcan it get more west because of that?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[WeatherEmperor]

Moving slowly NW. A sign of recurve taking place. Still 10+ days out so a lot can change


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

Moving slowly NW. A sign of recurve taking place. Still 10+ days out so a lot can change


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Well, maybe the GFS isn't that "out to lunch" on this next MDR system. EURO coming in with consecutive runs showing a storm as well. What's striking about the new 0Z EURO run is that the track is distinctly further south and west compared to its own prior run.