2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS again with NW Caribbean development heading into the EGOM in the long-range:

[psyclone]

The northwest Caribbean has been untouched this season. I expect it to toss a grenade or 2 between now and the end of October. Peak climo landfall frequency on the Florida west coast is mid Sept through October so we are just entering peak season for that region..

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/908735911734726656

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Self explanatory really, modeling a TD/TS in the GOM. Maria's wind field is out too the E.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I can see a persistent area of convection firing up off the coast of honduras & Nicaragua. Wondering if this is what the models were sniffing at or was its origins in the Bay of Campeche.

[rickybobby]

Eric from wesh 2 did his coffe break chat on FB and said there's models showing something developing in the gulf and sending it to Florida next week.

[jlauderdal]

Eric from wesh 2 did his coffe break chat on FB and said there's models showing something developing in the gulf and sending it to Florida next week.

Its that time of the year
.oct busiest hurricane month for florida

[TheStormExpert]

Eric from wesh 2 did his coffe break chat on FB and said there's models showing something developing in the gulf and sending it to Florida next week.

Its that time of the year
.oct busiest hurricane month for florida

It’s been 12 years since our last legitimate Western Caribbean October hurricane threat to Florida (Wilma). If we were to see something you’d think that this would have to be the year the way things have been going. Be prepared!

[gatorcane]

GFS start October with a bang:

[RL3AO]

I don't see any large scale reason why October should be below average. We only have the GFS out that far, but even the ensembles are starting to pick out the standard lower pressures near Central America.

[jlauderdal]

GFS start October with a bang:

We have seen this setup before

[SEASON_CANCELED]

yeah not liking it.

bad feeling about the next week. I dont like that W word either..she was the strongest ever recorded (wilma)

[jlauderdal]

yeah not liking it.

bad feeling about the next week. I dont like that W word either..she was the strongest ever recorded (wilma)

We have a long way to go in florida

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles quite bullish for 384hrs. (16 days) out.

[jlauderdal]

18z GEFS Ensembles quite bullish for 384hrs. (16 days) out.

There is plenty of bath water down there to make hurricanes

[Patrick99]

yeah not liking it.

bad feeling about the next week. I dont like that W word either..she was the strongest ever recorded (wilma)

We have a long way to go in florida

Yes we do. Season not even close to being over....especially for Florida.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS shows the system forming around 10 days in the western Caribbean while the Euro is only showing lowering pressures at the same timeframe

[SFLcane]

Yep climo favored area as we start OCT..GFS extreme long range has a hurricane just miss SFL into the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

The GFS Western Caribbean storm develops from an area vorticity that is shown at 168 hours in the SW Caribbean, so really not that long-range. We'll see if it brings in the timeframe here on development.

[RL3AO]

You can really see how strong the low-level westerly anomalies are (orange shading). Looks like your classic Central America monsoon trough setting up (like in June).