2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[stormhunter7]

That is just cruel EURO.... Texans and LA folks could not take on another tropical system in 10-11 days....

[Steve]

Actually the GFS shows a wave or a depression into Matagorda and hammers another 10-15" of rain over SE TX.

Yeah. It has consequences But it just throws up one or two weak circulations of loose or broad low pressure. I thought its mid range game for Harvey was awful specifically when it came to depicting structure and intensification. It missed completely on the opportunity the West Gulf pattern offered for rapid intensification. Recall it had a stretched out low a few days ago depicting Harvey's weak remnants coming off the Yucatán and sliding up the coast.

Having said that, what the ECMWF seems to want to show is a weaker first system coming up to LA then 93L 5 or so days after that farther east and much stronger. It's weird because if that run hits and both systems end up developing, they would be from completely different source regions though right where they should be in the progression of the tropical pattern next 1-2 weeks. I have been preoccupied with Harvey and haven't even looked at the EPAC to see if it has a forerunner system in the next 2-4 days. I wonder if there is a pulse of MJO or an amplification coming to get the Atlantic systems to intensify and come up? We moved out of the circle into Phase 2 as Harvey and also +/- 92L were coming together. I think we were supposed to go back in the circle, but im not sure after that.

[stormzilla]

A very strong wave still inland and has some spin to it..could this be the one that models are picking up on 12 days out ?.....http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Steve]

As suspected, globals that are out so far bring up an EPAC storm in the near term. That fits perfectly with a coming Gulf threat and SE Coast threat after that if that's how the next 2 weeks go. So far GFS has an inflow of disorganized low pressure moving up the west Gulf. CMC and NAVGEM don't do anything. Euro will be running soon. It had the Gulf storm at 12z. Not the specific thread but 93L is notable on all models. Looks like it could be a medium sized deep system approaching the Bahamas/FL next weekend (wknd after this one coming up). Euro needs to run so I can go to sleep.

[SoupBone]

As suspected, globals that are out so far bring up an EPAC storm in the near term. That fits perfectly with a coming Gulf threat and SE Coast threat after that if that's how the next 2 weeks go. So far GFS has an inflow of disorganized low pressure moving up the west Gulf. CMC and NAVGEM don't do anything. Euro will be running soon. It had the Gulf storm at 12z. Not the specific thread but 93L is notable on all models. Looks like it could be a medium sized deep system approaching the Bahamas/FL next weekend (wknd after this one coming up). Euro needs to run so I can go to sleep.

I understand the rules here, but in light of what's been happening, why can't we have a potential heavy rain thread or something for the gulf threat 9/5-9/7?

[Blinhart]

As suspected, globals that are out so far bring up an EPAC storm in the near term. That fits perfectly with a coming Gulf threat and SE Coast threat after that if that's how the next 2 weeks go. So far GFS has an inflow of disorganized low pressure moving up the west Gulf. CMC and NAVGEM don't do anything. Euro will be running soon. It had the Gulf storm at 12z. Not the specific thread but 93L is notable on all models. Looks like it could be a medium sized deep system approaching the Bahamas/FL next weekend (wknd after this one coming up). Euro needs to run so I can go to sleep.

I understand the rules here, but in light of what's been happening, why can't we have a potential heavy rain thread or something for the gulf threat 9/5-9/7?

I totally agree, especially models are getting into more agreement, and with what is happening now and the potential of what is coming next week, I think we need another thread.

[tropicwatch]

Maybe a thread Gulf of Mexico Sept. 3rd - 7th. Or something of that facsimile.

[Aric Dunn]

I see it looks like harvey's gives birth to a child in the BOC in a few days from that trailing boundary it left behind.. lovely..

[Airboy]

The latest GFS run is a bit crazy for the Gulf.......

[OntarioEggplant]

This GFS run is crazy. At least it isn't showing the rain totals for Houston and Beaumont that 6Z did, but the fact that it shows it getting much stronger is pretty much coming in line to what the Euro has shown

[chaser1]

Maybe a thread Gulf of Mexico Sept. 3rd - 7th. Or something of that facsimile.

I believe that thread HAS been initiated (rightfully so)

[RachelAnna]

53.91" as of 3:40PM. I cannot even imagine another tropical threat for the Upper TX Coast and SE TX next week.

I got 36.4 at my house. The idea of even another sprinkle makes me feel ill. I'm watching this closely. Long ways out, but it'll be better to prepare myself mentally.

[ace]

Maybe a thread Gulf of Mexico Sept. 3rd - 7th. Or something of that facsimile.

I believe that thread HAS been initiated (rightfully so)

I don't see it started as of yet. Do you have a link, please?

[tolakram]

Maybe a thread Gulf of Mexico Sept. 3rd - 7th. Or something of that facsimile.

I believe that thread HAS been initiated (rightfully so)

I don't see it started as of yet. Do you have a link, please?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119080

[ace]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119080

Thanks!

[USTropics]

Various ECMWF ensembles, and vaguely the ECMWF 00z operational run, have suggested a potential trailing system behind Irma. Origins appear to be from the wave currently near the African coast.

00z ECMWF ensembles:




00z ECMWF operational run:


latest visible image of African coast:

[tolakram]

Putting this request here as well ... This applies to model maps, not every image.

Please include sourcing of your maps if the source is not listed on the graphic. Graphics without an obvious source will be taken down.

MAPS FROM COMMERCIAL SITES CAN NOT BE POSTED UNLESS SHARED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

In these cases please link to tweets or other URL where shared.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[tolakram]

For those above

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903189592475668480

[cycloneye]

Jose behind Irma.

[cycloneye]