2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Siker]

UKMET shows this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.7N 32.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 108 11.5N 33.4W 1010 32
1200UTC 05.09.2017 120 12.7N 34.9W 1008 37
0000UTC 06.09.2017 132 13.9N 37.0W 1003 47
1200UTC 06.09.2017 144 14.7N 39.4W 995 51

[cycloneye]

978 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Maybe Jose is feeling some upwelling waters that Irma left and the model capture this.Tracking the same direction as Irma.Wont post more as is long range.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

@72hrs model shows the next feature that may slowly organise as it rolls of Africa

[RL3AO]

Both big global models develop want to develop the wave behind the wave tagged by NHC into a formidable hurricane. The 384 hr GFS even brings it to a familiar area (it starts with an F and ends with rida).

[SoupBone]

Both big global models develop want to develop the wave behind the wave tagged by NHC into a formidable hurricane. The 384 hr GFS even brings it to a familiar area (it starts with an F and ends with rida).

Is it still showing a high protecting the central Gulf Coast during this period?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC going with the E/wave will be a organised TS by next w/end.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Typical Euro dropping development mid-run seems to happen here: Maria didn't become a formidable hurricane near Cape Verde at 12z. What?

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro ends like this. Couple areas to watch for development w/ a wave off Africa and something in the Carribbean, south of DR.

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[Kingarabian]

Although it's in the super long range, I'd watch the GOM for possible homebrew in 10-14 days.

Reason: Appears to be an active MT situated in the SW GOM/CA. GFS is trying to send something to the EPac and spin it up there. But it's 50/50 that this will happen since it did this with the disturbance that became Katia, yet Katia formed in the BOC.

[HurricaneEric]

Hour 120-240 of the 12z Euro. Euro has something spinning up in the Central Atlantic days 5-7 and begins to develop a wave that comes off Africa on day 8 (as it did in the 00z run).

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[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro indicates possibility of development with two more waves. Don't think the current AOI will develop but we should see Lee before too long.

[OntarioEggplant]

Anyone else see the triple Fujiwara in the EPAC that the Euro is predicting? That would be fascinating.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF look to be showing a 500mb pattern in the long-range that could allow a system to make it make it far west. For example, look at the ridge over SE Canada sliding east.

[Steve]

Yeah. That's a setup for a SE threat storm. GFS also has the Gulf sort of ripe bringing one weaker storm NE across FL and then the one near Central America. Both are small storms at the points they are shown. MJO models I've looked at seem to prog MJO into Phase 8. We aren't there yet, but Phase 8 is a western Atlantic phase, and Jose is probably in the picture conservatively for a few more days. GFS and EC upper patterns put a trough in the northwest. This should lead to generally higher pressure in the NE US and E'rn Canada which at this time of the year is a return to summer. Patterns have been more transient across those areas this year, so there hasn't really been a strong NAO signal. It was positive, and then we had that amplification when it went neutral-negative and saw the 3 hurricanes (link below) and were also into I think Phase 1 MJO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

It looks like since Jose will be around for a few days to a week, it will have most of the WAtl energy tied up. Maybe we see a burst in the EPAC and the pattern returns to this side for a 2-3 named storm burst before the month is out? If so, we would be to the M or N storm heading into October.

[jlauderdal]

Yeah. That's a setup for a SE threat storm. GFS also has the Gulf sort of ripe bringing one weaker storm NE across FL and then the one near Central America. Both are small storms at the points they are shown. MJO models I've looked at seem to prog MJO into Phase 8. We aren't there yet, but Phase 8 is a western Atlantic phase, and Jose is probably in the picture conservatively for a few more days. GFS and EC upper patterns put a trough in the northwest. This should lead to generally higher pressure in the NE US and E'rn Canada which at this time of the year is a return to summer. Patterns have been more transient across those areas this year, so there hasn't really been a strong NAO signal. It's was positive, and then we had that amplification when it went negative and saw the 3 hurricanes (link below) and were also into I think Phase 1 MJO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

It looks like since Jose will be around for a few days to a week, it will have most of the WAtl energy tied up. Maybe we see a burst in the EPAC and the pattern returns to this side for a 2-3 named storm burst before the month is out? If so, we would be to the M or N storm heading into October.

Good analysis
..
Euro is liking conditions ahead, jose will need to move on.though..hurricane shutters are down but close by if needed in the next 6 weeks

[Patrick99]

The GFS and ECMWF look to be showing a 500mb pattern in the long-range that could allow a system to make it make it far west. For example, look at the ridge over SE Canada sliding east.

That map in September.....don't know that we are over for this season...

[Mouton]

I am keeping most of my hard to replace shutters up. That set up looks too much like what we have seen since late summer. Look for long train systems sweeping around the western perifery. Florida is at the cross hairs IMO
TILL pattern changes hopefully SOON.

[Steve]

00Z GFS with the back to back New England systems. I don't trust it but still...

[Steve]

06 GFS Wide View looks like the old Canadian with storms everywhere. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91506&fh=6

FWIW, Joe B likes the wave in front of TD #14 which he called a "throw away storm." He's got the area circled across FL/Bahamas/Big Islands/Eastern Gulf for next weekend possible Cat 2.