2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#21 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:New HMON that will replace the GFDL is coming very soon in time for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842029271501664256




Lets hope that this GFDL replacement (HMON) will be better than the last one (HWRF) that was supposed to happen 10 years ago.


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:25 am

Good news as more tools (Soundings) are added to the Levi Cowan models section.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 31912&fh=6

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/843481906175971328


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:53 am

@TropicalTidbits
Soundings are fun for exploring. Try sampling GFS forecasts in equatorial Africa. Here's a nice example of superadiabatic surface layer:

Image

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/843504222784143361


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:25 pm

Great example of the new sounding tool that Levi has in his site.

Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits

Here's another fun one. Pointing at center of a tilted GFS TC, your vertical sample hits both the eye and the eyewall in the same sounding!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits

@TropicalTidbits The vertical motion profile on the left and the temp/dewpoint profiles help identify these two layers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits

@EricBlake12 Gonna be fun dissecting TCs in the GFS and seeing what the model "thinks" is going on!




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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:22 am

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/844914247754792960


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#26 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:35 am

Maybe an early start to the hurricane season
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#27 Postby gatorcane » Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:25 pm

12Z ECMWF has it again:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#28 Postby Alyono » Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:59 pm

extratropical
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#29 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:47 pm

I'm very glad to see that I wasn't the only person to see this on the model runs today, I personally think it may get a brief NHC mention with a 10% chance, but yet I can't be sure, they have their hands full with the Matthew TCR so they may just ignore it even if it looks interesting...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:28 am

Teasing a Invest? :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

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Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy no delusions of grandeur please!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/845219683691347968


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#31 Postby NDG » Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:45 am

Good candidate for our first named subtropical system, IMO. :D
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:13 am

Odds are rising to have something to watch in the next few days.

Note: We will stay here for now posting about this future area until a low forms or a Invest is up.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/845257281260412928




 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/845265561927999489


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#33 Postby gatorcane » Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:02 am

Looks like clouds and some broad cyclonic turning are on the increase near Hispaniola. Time to start a new thread?

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:16 am

12z GFS at 72 hours.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#35 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:22 am

Yeah, it looks more and more likeky that we may have some type of early hybrid system next week. Interestung we are seeing these early season entities form these past several years.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#36 Postby tolakram » Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:54 am

Looks like a pileup just to the NW of Puerto Rico which might be the beginnings of this?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#37 Postby tolakram » Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:59 am

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#38 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:00 pm



It certainly appears that way tolakram. Interesting to say the least. If shear levels can stay within marginal levels (20kts or so, this system may indeed have a chance to develop into a hybrid/subtropical system in a few days.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#39 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:30 pm

Seems like these pre-season/out of season Hybrid/Subtropical Systems are becoming the new normal each and every season for the past several years.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#40 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:30 pm

Great explanation from Levi in 12 reply tweets.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323047586418688




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323173956608000




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323290847723520




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323405524156417




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323458292699137




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323515129708545




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323556040912900




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323606037086208




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323643265671169




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323689847640065




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323733279653890




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/845323913869627394


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