2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

Looks more tropical on the 00z ECMWF.

[Alyono]

looks like a warm and cold front attached to the low

[cycloneye]

70% chance to develop on GFS and 40% at ECMWF.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/845612055893872640

[cycloneye]

GFS has entreteinment time for April 13.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Early look at the ens.

[AutoPenalti]

Early look at the ens.

I get this is way out into the future but considering that TC's may form closer to home this season, it's something to watch for any kind of TC genesis.

[gatorcane]

GFS long-range, possible subtropical storm SE of Bermuda?

[cycloneye]

GFS long-range, possible subtropical storm SE of Bermuda?

https://s21.postimg.org/7qvtb3qfr/gfs_m ... atl_43.png

GFS has been showing this area since March 28 when I posted above for April 13.As expected in long range,it has been coming and going but now that is getting closer,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it in terms of having a wet pattern.

LONG TERM...A ridge will prevail over the local region from
Wednesday through the incoming weekend. Guidance suggest that this
weather scenario will change as a trough will move from NW. This
weather feature will increase the chances of rain for next Sunday
through Wednesday.

[crownweather]

12Z Canadian has it too (for what it's worth). Looks like this is the 1st model run that the Canadian has actually shown this feature. Hmmm....interesting....

[gatorcane]

Something is showing up on the ECMWF now also, long-range:

[weathaguyry]

This seems interesting, that all of the models have something, I would say its about a 50/50 shot of either dumb luck, or something to watch, if this really does happen, a thumbs up to the models for having it this early and agreeing with each other!

[cycloneye]

Umm,warm core?

[gatorcane]

Definitely name-worthy if that 18Z GFS run were to verify.

[TheStormExpert]

Umm,warm core?

Looks frontal to me.

[Alyono]

have a look at the simulated IR. It's likely ET. May be ST for a short period of time, but definitely not tropical

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF form a low pressure north of the greater Antilles around April 13 but both models have it as extratropical.

GFS



ECMWF

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/852179639183298560

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/852474062525927424

[gatorcane]

Another low that might make a run at subtropical development? 12Z GFS animation, look at the SW Atlantic area:

[cycloneye]

Maybe action in Western Caribbean in early May? It getting closer to the time of year that things can form in that area but of course is very long range.