2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Extremely long-range 06z GFS is hinting at something getting going in the NW Caribbean just beyond 300hrs. and heading NW in the general direction of the Gulf of Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS is forecasting either the remnants of 90E or another area of low pressure to emerge into the Western Caribbean and redevelop into something weak.

The Euro is forecasting lowering pressures in the general vicinity of the Western Caribbean 10 days out.

[Florida1118]

Might be something worth watching in the near future.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF long-range with a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean:

[TheStormExpert]

Uh-Oh! Don't look now but the 12z GFS is hinting at mischief coming out of the Caribbean into the Bahamas days 8-10.



Looks to take a Matthew-like track cutting the gap between Grand Bahama Island and the FL East Coast. Extremely long range knowing how well the models do but worth mentioning as the Caribbean and likely Bahamas region would be the most ideal places to look for more potential pre-season action.

[Hurricaneman]

That would be close to a hurricane if the GFS is right but the Euro is farther west towards the western Caribbean with possible lower pressure

[TheStormExpert]

That would be close to a hurricane if the GFS is right but the Euro is farther west towards the western Caribbean with possible lower pressure

Euro didn't have it on it's 00z run, guess we will wait and see what happens on it's 12z run in a little bit.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS showing a low end cat 1 with a Matthew-like track would be extremely rare this early into the season.

Would be interesting if it continues to verify.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS showing a low end cat 1 with a Matthew-like track would be extremely rare this early into the season.

Would be interesting if it continues to verify.

I honestly think this will be gone next run unless the Euro joins in.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS showing a low end cat 1 with a Matthew-like track would be extremely rare this early into the season.

Would be interesting if it continues to verify.

I honestly think this will be gone next run unless the Euro joins in.

Yeah GFS past 7 days is unreliable IMHO.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

HWRF also developing a TS over the West Caribbean on the next week.

[cycloneye]

Nothing from 12z ECMWF.

[gatorcane]

The inferior NAVGEM and CMC models are showing some kind of broad low forming in the West-Central Caribbean in about 8-9 days from now with the GFS surprisingly the most bullish. I am quite skeptical anything comes of this but we'll continue to look at future model runs.

[Florida1118]

Nothing from 12z ECMWF.

Don't know I'd say nothing. There's some sort of vorticity in the same area at 240 hours.

[gatorcane]

Simulated IR from 12Z CMC run, again I am skeptical but possibly a good moisture surge into the Caribbean:

[cycloneye]

Nothing from 12z ECMWF.

Don't know I'd say nothing. There's some sort of vorticity in the same area at 240 hours.

https://preview.ibb.co/eOwCi5/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_11.png

I say nothing as there is no low pressure marked like 1007 mbs it was in earlier run.

[Brent]

Interesting, uh, solution on the 0z GFS in the long range

[RL3AO]

Looks like we get one of those typical May monsoon gyres in the SW Caribbean that the GFS develops it from. I won't hold my breath yet though.

[xironman]

CMC has something similar going on

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/862885529712570368





Ryan Maue‏
@RyanMaue

I've been downloading GFS & ECMWF forecasts & verifying now for > 11-years. Models are getting better, especially in summer.