2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[blp]

The takeaway from 18z run is not which vorticity developed and where it ended it up. Too early for that. Rather the overal moisture flow looked more resonable on the WCar side versus EPAC. Lets see if the 00z is consistent.

[gatorcane]

Happy hour 18Z GEFS living up to its name. That is just a week away:

[LarryWx]

^The happy Hour GEFS is, indeed, active like usual but the TCs almost all travel NE over Cuba and stay SE of FL.

[blp]

Most agressive run of the FIM so far.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z NAVGEM very consistent on development in Caribbean.




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[LarryWx]

Based on the model consensus, the threat of a W Caribbean TC genesis is there but with a high likelihood as of now of moving NE from there and staying SE of FL as there is no upper high over the E US in the model consensus to favor steering over FL. This can change but that's how it appears to me now.

[blp]

GFS going nuts with the MJO.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS going nuts with the MJO.

Umm Holy MJO

[gatorcane]

Based on the model consensus, the threat of a W Caribbean TC genesis is there but with a high likelihood as of now of moving NE from there and staying SE of FL as there is no upper high over the E US in the model consensus to favor steering over FL. This can change but that's how it appears to me now.

That is what it looks like now but the GFS has this system in the NW Caribbean 200+hours so there is plenty of time for it to nudge the track more to the left. It barely misses South Florida as it stands anyway at 250+ hours. Let’s see if it even continues development in the overnight runs.

[LarryWx]

Based on the model consensus, the threat of a W Caribbean TC genesis is there but with a high likelihood as of now of moving NE from there and staying SE of FL as there is no upper high over the E US in the model consensus to favor steering over FL. This can change but that's how it appears to me now.

That is what it looks like now but the GFS has this system in the NW Caribbean 200+hours so there is plenty of time for it to nudge the track more to the left. It barely misses South Florida as it stands anyway at 250+ hours. Let’s see if it even continues development in the overnight runs.

Agreed. Nate shifted 400 miles west from well under a 200 hour timeframe.

[TheStormExpert]

Based on the model consensus, the threat of a W Caribbean TC genesis is there but with a high likelihood as of now of moving NE from there and staying SE of FL as there is no upper high over the E US in the model consensus to favor steering over FL. This can change but that's how it appears to me now.

That is what it looks like now but the GFS has this system in the NW Caribbean 200+hours so there is plenty of time for it to nudge the track more to the left. It barely misses South Florida as it stands anyway at 250+ hours. Let’s see if it even continues development in the overnight runs.

Agreed. Nate shifted 400 miles west from well under a 200 hour timeframe.

Really only the Euro shifted west with Nate, the GFS has the right idea all along.

[floridasun78]

let see when models are right when front move into nw carribean late in season system form from tail of front

[blp]

18z NAVGEM ramps this up.

[LarryWx]

Well, the 0Z GEFS brings the threat back to S FL that the Happy Hour version didn't have since all of its TCs tracked SE of FL. Also, the timing is a little earlier on average. S FL is hit by a TS on 10/27 that has genesis on 10/24. Then from geneses during 10/27-30, there are 3 hits of strong TSs to Hs on 10/30-1 and 2 hits on 11/3, one which is a H. So, 6 total hits from 20 members. About the same number miss FL to the SE and one hits the Yucatan.
Let's see what the Euro has.

[Frank2]

00Z GFS has Caribbean energy pulled northward east of FL along departing frontal trough, similar to CMC 2 days ago. Hopefully it's the better solution...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/920960130568544256

[blp]

Ukmet out 168hr starting to hint at a vorticity forming in the S. Carribean.

[blp]

The Euro keeps splitting the energy with the EPAC. I don't know what it is seeing on the EPAC side.

[blp]

FIM holding strong with its strongest run again.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro keeps splitting the energy with the EPAC. I don't know what it is seeing on the EPAC side.

I also notice it still shows a broad weak low pressure in the SW Caribbean at days 9-10 but it may be pushing it back as each run is showing the same thing.