2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS MUCH weaker with long-range Caribbean development, even pushes back timeframe some.

[Alyono]

GFS and CMC are stronger at 0Z, but are trending more westward. Showing a very strong ridge north of the system

[gatorcane]

[CourierPR]

Gatorcane, according to that 12Z GFS, there is strong high pressure to the north. Interesting setup.

[CyclonicFury]

The 12Z Euro shows a strong ridge over the Eastern US along with lowering pressures in the Caribbean. It also shows a persistent area of vort developing over the SW Caribbean by late next week. We may have one last Caribbean system to watch.

[floridasun78]

i want see more support we now into month of nov

[gatorcane]

The long-range 06Z GEFS is quite enthusiastic:

[Visioen]

Still possible.

[Alyono]

his Puerto Rico and the NE Islands on the 0Z run

[EquusStorm]

Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.

Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.

[Alyono]

Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.

Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.

a west to east track is NOT that uncommon late in the year. Happened with Klaus in 1984, Lenny in 1999, and Omar in 2008 (Omar was a miracle as it tracked between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin providing little impact to both locations despite being a cat 4

west to east tracks occur about once a decade

[EquusStorm]

Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.

Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.

a west to east track is NOT that uncommon late in the year. Happened with Klaus in 1984, Lenny in 1999, and Omar in 2008 (Omar was a miracle as it tracked between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin providing little impact to both locations despite being a cat 4

west to east tracks occur about once a decade

True. I do remember Omar well, that track should've been catastrophic but came out far better than expected. Paloma the next month also moved northeast if I recall (but in the WCarib where that's very common) but Lenny still intrigues me the most with less northward component than the others, though. Not that it's a super special track, just really interesting.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks like a Paloma (2008) track up to Cuba (not the rest of it though)

[wxman57]

Weaker, later, weaker, later - a sign of a bogus development prediction. Still an area to keep an eye on late season, but development chances are low.

[chaser1]

This is Casey Kasem with American (Model) top 40 (Forecast Busts), counting down yet another familiar old fashioned love song. Whether you simply love, or love to hate its over-reaching tropical beat, the GFS is back with yet another "384hour-acane"

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017110600&fh=384

[chaser1]

Just one more reason some of us Floridians cant help but enjoy the GFS 384 hr. forecast..... Some like it Cold, while others a bit more "Tropical Bold". In terms of wish-casts though, the GFS seldom fails to deliver

[Alyono]

GFS going cat 5 into bangladesh. Seeing more signs in the models that there will be a significant cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Big difference @192hrs with the two models atm. GFS over hyping maybe.





http://www.wx.graphics/

[MetroMike]

Yes that IS global.

[Alyono]

EC seems lost, as is almost always the case with monsoon trough genesis

UKMET also showing a significant cyclone