2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[AtlanticWind]

Stronger And farther south on east atlantic system.

[RL3AO]

A storm out of this wave would not surprise me, but the vorticity consolidation from the GFS is crazy. GFS can feel free to prove me wrong, but this is garbage.

[TheStormExpert]

Been offline for a day or so, obviously nothing has changed in terms of seeing anything anytime soon in the Atlantic.

[RL3AO]

Been offline for a day or so, obviously nothing has changed in terms of seeing anything anytime soon in the Atlantic.

Um... 99L will probably develop tomorrow.

[Steve]

CFS Climate models favors that system getting all the way into the Gulf in the 10-15 day period. That's going to be a beast. I doubt it at this point, but it's been doing better than GFS and Euro overall with pattern stuff. The end of the range is better because it really kind of shows things in the 3-4 week period where the precipitation is up along the Gulf

Temps Cooler:
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... NAsfcT.gif

Precip Higher:
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... NAprec.gif

[floridasun78]

i have question i going to Tropical Tidbits models have hurr frank hitting mexico look models are outdated??

[Steve]

i have question i going to Tropical Tidbits models have hurr frank hitting mexico look models are outdated??

Depends on what you run. Some of the regions start at -72 hours so they go back 3 days and then run current. Look at the hours section next to the model and you'll see if it starts at 00 hours or -72.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 0605995008


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[AutoPenalti]

Been offline for a day or so, obviously nothing has changed in terms of seeing anything anytime soon in the Atlantic.

You've been offline for a "day or so", of course nothing is going to change.

[AJC3]

A thread as been started about potential development coming out of the large area of disturbed weather inside the east Atlantic monsoon trough. To avoid cross posting, we probably want to direct posts about this MDR development to that thread.

[TheStormExpert]

Been offline for a day or so, obviously nothing has changed in terms of seeing anything anytime soon in the Atlantic.

You've been offline for a "day or so", of course nothing is going to change.

Well it is mid-August already.

[RL3AO]

Been offline for a day or so, obviously nothing has changed in terms of seeing anything anytime soon in the Atlantic.

You've been offline for a "day or so", of course nothing is going to change.

Well it is mid-August already.

And we'll probably have our 2nd hurricane of the month by mid-week.

[cycloneye]

LInk to new thread for East Atlantic area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118957&p=2599150#p2599150

[Steve]

Yeah really. Come on tehstormexpert. G system likely close but offshore in a couple days. Big waves massing on the other side of the world and now some climate models super early showing anomalies off SE FL and the Gulf Coast in the < 30 day range.

[Hammy]

You've been offline for a "day or so", of course nothing is going to change.

Well it is mid-August already.

And we'll probably have our 2nd hurricane of the month by mid-week.

You're thinking 99L reaches hurricane intensity?

[Steve]

What do you think Hammy? I really don't know unless it's closer to the horse latitudes. CMC was the only model on this from Day 1, and it has slowly raised the pressure over time at x latitude. Last run I looked at was like 1003mb or so where it was 997 a couple days ago. I realized that's not significant except that's not the peak. And I also realize the general foolhardiness of banking on the CMC for anything much less intensity. I think it goes down into the upper 970s, but that looked like it was probably at a point that was post tropical. So 990? 980s? Borderline?

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=366

Euro starting to show uptick in activity.

[Hammy]

What do you think Hammy? I really don't know unless it's closer to the horse latitudes. CMC was the only model on this from Day 1, and it has slowly raised the pressure over time at x latitude. Last run I looked at was like 1003mb or so where it was 997 a couple days ago. I realized that's not significant except that's not the peak. And I also realize the general foolhardiness of banking on the CMC for anything much less intensity. I think it goes down into the upper 970s, but that looked like it was probably at a point that was post tropical. So 990? 980s? Borderline?

I'm personally thinking mid-to-high tropical storm at most, probably a bit lower than NHC forecast. That massive wall of shear to the NW associated with the trough looks like it might eat the storm before it can go much higher than that.

I will add though, the models have destroyed my own forecast confidence this year--there's usually some amount of consistency (other than failing to develop an already developed system) and I'll look at the environmental conditions and try to predict under or over, but there's no starting point so to speak to branch out from.

And a side note that I couldn't help notice, Euro has a storm hitting S Florida on August 23, a day before Andrew's 25th anniversary.

[RL3AO]

Quite a wave that leaves Africa in a few days. Maybe a little more dry air that 91L, but a remarkable envelope.

[Steve]

What do you think Hammy? I really don't know unless it's closer to the horse latitudes. CMC was the only model on this from Day 1, and it has slowly raised the pressure over time at x latitude. Last run I looked at was like 1003mb or so where it was 997 a couple days ago. I realized that's not significant except that's not the peak. And I also realize the general foolhardiness of banking on the CMC for anything much less intensity. I think it goes down into the upper 970s, but that looked like it was probably at a point that was post tropical. So 990? 980s? Borderline?

I'm personally thinking mid-to-high tropical storm at most, probably a bit lower than NHC forecast. That massive wall of shear to the NW associated with the trough looks like it might eat the storm before it can go much higher than that.

I will add though, the models have destroyed my own forecast confidence this year--there's usually some amount of consistency (other than failing to develop an already developed system) and I'll look at the environmental conditions and try to predict under or over, but there's no starting point so to speak to branch out from.

And a side note that I couldn't help notice, Euro has a storm hitting S Florida on August 23, a day before Andrew's 25th anniversary.

Agreed on all counts. I'm thinking 990/988 at the lowest while tropical and maybe some deepening on the way out. I'm also missing some baseline confidence the models and a blend of x, y and z used to provide.