2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.

Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development


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[CourierPR]

Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.

Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development


You really expect EPAC development as late season and LaNina approach?

[TheStormExpert]

Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.

Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development


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The 12z Euro does have development in the East Pacific in 9-10 days but also has a weak broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

Development moved to the East Pacific in 216hrs.

Shifting towards thw Euro solution of Epac development


You really expect EPAC development as late season and LaNina approach?

Its not about what I believe but instead what the models show. Lets see what future runs show in regars to development location.


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[gatorcane]

Wow in the Pacific now in a La Niña?

[TheStormExpert]

Interested to see if the happy hour 18z GEFS Ensembles show development now in the E-PAC.

[toad strangler]

Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.

not happening

Alyono says no

[TheStormExpert]

Euro seems to favor the Eastern Pacific last two runs.

not happening

Alyono says no

I’m guessing he still says no even with the GFS flipping over.

[LarryWx]

Ahh, the Happy Hour GEFS, everyone's favorite GEFS run. Well, it didn't overdo the drinking this time. I notice that it has slipped since yesterday as regards most members' genesis times to 10/28-31 vs yesterday's 18Z GEFS being mainly 10/25-8. Also, there are not as many TS+ or Hs. In addition, whereas yesterday's had 3 H hits on FL along with 5 member Hs lurking in the NW Caribbean at the end of the run, this had zero direct TC hits on FL because they mainly move ENE over central or E Cuba south of FL. Apparently, they are assuming a deeper trough/cold front vs yesterday.

In summary, today's 18Z GEFS is much less threatening for FL vs yesterday.

Any opinions as to this having the right idea?

[tolakram]

Gatorcane, glad you mentioned the cold front issue - even though the models might indicate development, that late in the season the polar jet is forcing fronts south of 30N every 3-5 days, so whatever does form if it does, will be influenced by a front. Wilma as we know was influenced by a front, and actually became ST immediately after crossing Florida, so a lot more to consider than just a month earlier...

Frank

Wilma became a major hurricane again after striking South Florida, outflow enhanced by the front.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL252005_Wilma.pdf

A vigorous cold front associated with the mid-tropospheric trough swept
across the area to the west of Wilma, yet the cooler and drier air behind the front could not fully
penetrate the inner core of the hurricane to weaken it. Very shortly after departing Florida, the
hurricane re-intensified one last time, and its winds again reached 110 kt around 0000 UTC 25
October.

[caneman]

I'm laughing out loud for the last week or so at members predicting the end of the season. Basically since Nate we've been having the shut down posts. I'm pretty sure Mother Nature works on her down terms. I'd love to go back and see the pre Wilma posts.

[LarryWx]

I don't know about end of season, but trends since 0Z have been toward a lower FL threat around 11/1. The threat of a TC hit on FL from a Caribbean or Gulf genesis goes way down after 11/5 per 150+ years of climo.

[psyclone]

I don't know about end of season, but trends since 0Z have been toward a lower FL threat around 11/1. The threat of a TC hit on FL from a Caribbean or Gulf genesis goes way down after 11/5 per 150+ years of climo.

while the official season ends 11-30 the practical answer depends on where you are. For Texas it's pretty much over now absent something very anomalous. For the western Caribbean it goes on. For Florida the answer seems to lie with the arrival of persistent mid latitude weather...the net effect is Florida's late season hurricane risk tends to taper off very quickly and that transition is typically late October. There are some pretty good signals that some solid fronts are on the docket for the east including florida before the end of the month which would fit climo nicely...where many storms either move into central America or move northeasterly well south of the peninsula. Folks may remember a strong front immediately followed Wilma and ushered in a fall pattern back in 05.

[WeatherHoon]

I don't know about end of season, but trends since 0Z have been toward a lower FL threat around 11/1. The threat of a TC hit on FL from a Caribbean or Gulf genesis goes way down after 11/5 per 150+ years of climo.

while the official season ends 11-30 the practical answer depends on where you are. For Texas it's pretty much over now absent something very anomalous. For the western Caribbean it goes on. For Florida the answer seems to lie with the arrival of persistent mid latitude weather...the net effect is Florida's late season hurricane risk tends to taper off very quickly and that transition is typically late October. There are some pretty good signals that some solid fronts are on the docket for the east including florida before the end of the month which would fit climo nicely...where many storms either move into central America or move northeasterly well south of the peninsula. Folks may remember a strong front immediately followed Wilma and ushered in a fall pattern back in 05.

I remember the front quite well. It made post storm relief bearable with nice and cool temperatures the night after the storm. This was so welcoming, especially since our power was out for a full week. Stark contrast from Katrina almost 2 months before where the heat was just unbearable. Anyways, judging from the models, there's no need to assume something similar will happen. I bet whatever does end up festering down there (maybe nothing) in the Western Caribbean will either be a mess of a system that never consolidates into anything of significance or will take one of the tracks you suggest. We shall see.

[LarryWx]

Son of a gun, the 0Z GEFS brought back the FL threat that the two prior runs had taken away! SW or W FL is hit by three strong TSs or Hs with W Caribbean geneses (out of 20 members) on these days: 10/29, 10/30, and 11/1. Also, one is threatening to hit as of the end of the run on 11/3. A total of ~7 Hs form from the 20 members. Many members do stay south of FL still. Per history, FL has been hit by a TC with W. Caribbean or GOM genesis 8 times during 10/26-11/5 since 1851. After 11/5, the threat from the WC/GOM goes way down per history.

Edit: the 0Z Euro has pretty much nothing through its run.

[WeatherEmperor]

0z NAVGEM hits Florida.

0z Canadian with hurricane moving NE towards Florida

GFS and Euro develop in the EPAC






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[TheStormExpert]

Add the 00z FIM to the list for Western Caribbean development.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm...Now GFS in the epac lol. Well thankfully the 3 models that are showing development are

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm...Now GFS in the epac lol. Well thankfully the 3 models that are showing development are

The GFS has been back and forth each run since last nights 18z run. Let’s see if the 12z run continues the trend, but having both of the best global models favoring the E-PAC on their latest runs tells you something.

[blp]

:uarrow: Add the 00z FIM to the list for Western Caribbean development.

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/wji5oo.jpg[/]

[img]http://i63.tinypic.com/33dlbtv.jpg[/]

FIM, GOES5 have been seeing this for the last 3 days. FIM is also much weaker than past runs.

So far you have the less reliable models on board:
CMC, FIM, Goes5 and NAVGEM