2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,how about the new Euro performance so far after the upgrade?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,how about the new Euro performance so far after the upgrade?

It's about the same as I don't see any differences. Continues to initialize storms incorrectly but gets the overall solution correct. Continues to have some issues in the medium range between runs as it occasionally varies by dropping systems and then bringing them back.

[cycloneye]

First run of upgraded GFS is at 12z run.

Effective on Wednesday July 19, 2017, beginning with the
1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Global
Forecast Systems (GFS) Analysis and Forecast System as follows:

- Changes to the model components
- Changes to the data assimilation and tropical storm
relocation components
- Changes to the post-processing
- Changes to output products

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... pgrade.htm

[cycloneye]

New GFS is running.Let's see how the first run performs.

[GlennOBX]

New GFS is running.Let's see how the first run performs.

I thought about posting a GIF with Ted Knight from Caddyshack with the comment "Well??? We're waiting...", but self control got the better of me.

[cycloneye]

Nothing of note thru August 4th in North Atlantic.Suppressed Kelvin Wave in this period.

[gatorcane]

The new GFS long-range wind shear forecast shows very hostile conditions for the area East of Florida, the Caribbean, and a good chunk of the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles to end July:

[RL3AO]

The new GFS long-range wind shear forecast shows very hostile conditions for the area East of Florida, the Caribbean, and a good chunk of the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles to end July:

Sounds about right. Hyper active EPAC + southward shifted TUTT + suppressed Kelvin wave + suppressed MJO = very very unfavorable Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has the MJO over phase 7 while the ECMWF moves it more slowly.

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: GFS has the MJO over phase 7 while the ECMWF moves it more slowly.

It's a well known GFS bias. It gets the MJO (at least the upper-level signal) over South America too quickly and leaves it there too long.

[boca]

When will the Atlantic be favorable again?

[RL3AO]

When will the Atlantic be favorable again?

Probably around the 2nd week of August. Obviously, a 3 week forecast/prediction is subject to big error.

[Ntxw]

When will the Atlantic be favorable again?

Early indications are August. It takes time for better conditions to manifest and waves to time with it. Possibly second week of August if guidance is right

[Hurricaneman]

I would start looking for clues in the long range GFS the next few days of runs for possible development at the end of the run

[Weather150]

I would start looking for clues in the long range GFS the next few days of runs for possible development at the end of the run

I agree.

[Weather150]

18z GFS through the next 5 days.

[Hammy]

Is the GFS resolution increased any?

[tarheelprogrammer]

The GFS is showing copious amounts of shear all the way into August. The shear maps look more like June than August. I know shear is hard to predict, but the GFS is sticking to that outlook each run.

[Weather150]

Another SAL outbreak expected to happen starting this coming Monday.

[MetroMike]

Another SAL outbreak expected to happen starting this coming Monday.

Nothing unusual for this time of year.