2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2221 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:09 pm

Add the 12z JMA to the list showing Caribbean development

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2222 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:11 pm

:uarrow: 1st run it shows it too. I fully expect the GFS to join in the next run or two.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2223 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:Come on CMC lol the 28th? That’s my 40th birthday :0(


Lol mine too...but I'm at the age where they can't bake cakes big enough to fit all the candles anymore. :)
4 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2224 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:18 pm

12z EPS Ensembles.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2225 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:33 pm

That's a heavy lean to the Caribbean
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2226 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:02 pm

12Z UKMET:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2227 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:29 pm

Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1325
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2228 Postby CourierPR » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.


Can you give a screen shot?
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2229 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:56 pm

looks like the typical slow moving october ACE munching storm will be forming.

Hope when it doodles, it doodles over the open Caribbean and not near land, or else we'll be talking about massive flooding
7 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2230 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:22 pm

CourierPR wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.


Can you give a screen shot?

Still nothing from the GFS.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2231 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:41 pm

Happy Hour GFS OP still holding out. Let's see if ensembles continue to disagree.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2232 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:11 pm

The 12z Euro Control run has a 992mb storm in the NW Caribbean heading NE/NNE towards Southewestern Cuba and weakening to 1005mb just south of the Isle of Youth while heading slowly due north.

Image

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2233 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:16 pm

18z “Happy Hour” GEFS continues to move the area into Central America around Nicaragua in a week with little to no development prior to it.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2234 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:28 pm

18z GEFS at 240hrs

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2235 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:18 pm

12Z NASA model 120 hours:

Image
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2236 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:19 pm

GFS INSISTS we are in an el niño and that the SST maps are wrong. It insists that this will form in the EPAC. meanwhile, CMC and UKMET have a Caribbean system
1 likes   

Usf11
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:18 am

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2237 Postby Usf11 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:33 pm

With the cold front coming I don't think Florida will see any action. If a ts or hurricane hits Florida I will donate $85 to the site.
0 likes   

WeatherHoon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 131
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:12 am

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2238 Postby WeatherHoon » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:44 pm

Usf11 wrote:With the cold front coming I don't think Florida will see any action. If a ts or hurricane hits Florida I will donate $85 to the site.


If a storm can get itself somewhere near the Yucatán Channel while a cold front is dipping down, I'd say chances go up for a Florida impact.
2 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1968
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2239 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:03 am

Alyono wrote:GFS INSISTS we are in an el niño and that the SST maps are wrong. It insists that this will form in the EPAC. meanwhile, CMC and UKMET have a Caribbean system

The GFS has had a severe EPAC bias since it was upgraded. Probably modeled upwards of 10 convective feedback driven major hurricanes that never became nearly as strong.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2240 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:05 am

00z Euro completely drops development.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, JetFuel_SE, pepecool20 and 44 guests