2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

ECMWF control has a 999mb tropical storm developing in the caribbean.

[gatorcane]

This is like watching the models try to figure out Nate in the SW Caribbean all over again. In the EPAC then moved to the Caribbean...weaker multiple vorts now maybe some more consolidation in the western Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro Control Run ends with this.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS going with some development in the EGOM. Looks maybe a little frontal but looks more consolidated on the 12Z run:

[Alyono]

12Z CMC and UKMET continue to develop this. GFS insists it will dive over Central America

[gatorcane]

and 12Z CMC insists South Florida would be at risk. Think we are at 3 runs in a row now.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS lost as usual. Interested to see what the 12z Euro shows.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post the 12z UKMET graphic?


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[Shell Mound]

The 00Z EPS mean suggests that the window for development is between 25–30 October, with the most conducive conditions occurring on 27–29 October. Conditions become more hostile on 30 October and beyond. The mid- to upper-level pattern would suggest a track over Cuba and the Bahamas to eastward of Florida. A not-insignificant number of ensemble members show a potentially strong hurricane; most others are weaker but still show at least a tropical storm at some point. Individual tracks and geneses vary wildly, signifying that many details remain to be worked out. The signal as of now is for at least a tropical storm, possibly a hurricane, most likely by 27–29 October, with a projected general movement to the north and northeast, remaining south and east of the U.S. mainland. Again, this is but an early estimate, my own, and is not an official forecast.

[SFLcane]

Come on CMC lol the 28th? That’s my 40th birthday :0(

[WeatherEmperor]

12z NAVGEM a little weaker and slower with development again...and also shows a tropical cyclone in the EPAC. Perhaps slowly shifting to the GFS/ECMWF solutions?? Thoughts?




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[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro very similar to Navgem with a stronger storm on the Epac side and a weaker low pressure in Caribbean side. Perhaps the Euro was right all along with favoring mostly Epac development? Thoughts??






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[WeatherEmperor]

Aaaand the Euro is developing a TS at 216hrs. Could get interesting....




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[gatorcane]

500MB trough/ridge setup at hour 216 of 12Z Euro. I'd say that is a highly amplified pattern:

[Alyono]

Quite obvious that if anything were to form in the EPAC that it would be a Ramon type microsized storm with the real action in the Caribbean. Look at the difference in scale. On the Carib side is a large scale low. Models are not going to bust on that. The EPAC is a convective driven microcane.

[WeatherEmperor]

240hrs Euro




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[gatorcane]

998MB when run ends. Development chances going up for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro ends with the trough missing it and it moving slowly south of due west. What a cliffhanger. Now lets see those EPS Ensembles!

[TheStormExpert]

Quite obvious that if anything were to form in the EPAC that it would be a Ramon type microsized storm with the real action in the Caribbean. Look at the difference in scale. On the Carib side is a large scale low. Models are not going to bust on that. The EPAC is a convective driven microcane.

I personally never bought the E-PAC activity to begin with. It's late October heading into a decent La Niña, the E-PAC is dead!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Quite obvious that if anything were to form in the EPAC that it would be a Ramon type microsized storm with the real action in the Caribbean. Look at the difference in scale. On the Carib side is a large scale low. Models are not going to bust on that. The EPAC is a convective driven microcane.

I personally never bought the E-PAC activity to begin with. It's late October heading into a decent La Niña, the E-PAC is dead!

I have lost count on the amount of times the models showed a TS/Hurricane in the EPAC with nothing happening.