2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

All 3 major operational models show a Tropical Storm or area area of low pressure hitting florida especially South Florida from the WSW in the long range.
The potential area that Gatorcane has been predicting is something to pay attention to, even though it's long range, with the EURO Operational now on board.

OZ EURO shows a tropical storm hitting S FL at 240 hours. Long Range GFS 00Z shows a tropical storm hitting the SW and W Coast of FL near tampa bay after 240 hours. CMC shows a tropical storm that combines with a frontal low to form a very intense squall line that hits FL's West, Southwest Coast, and then the Panhandle.

[gatorcane]

00Z Euro picks up on Western Caribbean development for the first time with a low that moves NE out of NW Caribbean developing into a TS in the Straits of Florida on a NE trajectory.

[SFLcane]

Sorry i just can't buy any of these long range forecast even from the ECM. GFS has not brought the time in on this mornings 06z run it has another storm nearly 250-300hr out likely bogus. With the upper level conditions near FL i feel pretty good on some rain or a weak sheared TS. Maybe some sorta STS

[tolakram]

Sorry i just can't buy any of these long range forecast even from the ECM. GFS has not brought the time in on this mornings 06z run it has another storm nearly 250-300hr out likely bogus. With the upper level conditions near FL i feel pretty good on some rain or a weak sheared TS. Maybe some sorta STS

What upper level conditions?

If you look at the latest GFS 200MB winds there is no season ending front bringing high enough shear to protect all of Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=uv200&runtime=2017101606&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=98

The one phrase that is most overused here is 'season ending' IMO.

[SFLcane]

tolakram with a la nina its always wise to keep an eye in the caribbean deep into the season. No season ending from me for now i'am just not buying into any extreme long range forecast 200+hr even on the EURO. Its been an exhausting season

[tolakram]

tolakram with a la nina its always wise to keep an eye in the caribbean deep into the season. No season ending from me for now i'am just not buying into any extreme long range forecast 200+hr even on the EURO. Its been an exhausting season

Yea, I hear ya there. 192 hours is my magic number, we'll see if anything gets in range. Sorry if I confused what you were saying with someone else.

[blp]

tolakram with a la nina its always wise to keep an eye in the caribbean deep into the season. No season ending from me for now i'am just not buying into any extreme long range forecast 200+hr even on the EURO. Its been an exhausting season

Yea, I hear ya there. 192 hours is my magic number, we'll see if anything gets in range. Sorry if I confused what you were saying with someone else.

I am not putting too much faith in the GFS bringing in the timeframe. It did a poor job with NATE and was all over the place spitting out different vorticities each run until the Euro and other models where able to lock in on the area for cyclogensis. Once the GFS locks in then it will be useful IMO. There is something about this area of the basin that is causing the GFS to swing wildly from one solution to another with each run.

[gatorcane]

This is the same GFS that was bringing Nate into LA as a DEPRESSION/WAVE just around 4-5 days out.

This GFS also didn't do much with Ophelia in the beginning either.

[gatorcane]

Although not as reliable, 00Z NASA model at 10 days:

[blp]

This is the same GFS that was bringing Nate into LA as a DEPRESSION/WAVE just around 4-5 days out.

This GFS also didn't do much with Ophelia in the beginning either.

Yeah the intensity was a mess because of all those phantom vorticities it kept developing. The track was decent though and pulled the Euro West.

Probably need to stick to the Ensembles since they have been much more consistent in the long range.

[blp]

What I am seeing in most of the models today is a pretty decent sized front coming down in 10 days that will extend far enough south to dig out any low pressure that might be festering in the W. Carribean. A lot of times the tail end of the front could be quite favorable for development. Sometimes you need a front to break the current High Pressure dominated setup that has pushed waves over land. Could be a dangerous setup.

[gatorcane]

What I am seeing in most of the models today is a pretty decent sized front coming down in 10 days that will extend far enough south to dig out any low pressure that might be festering in the W. Carribean. A lot of times the tail end of the front could be quite favorable for development. Sometimes you need a front to break the current High Pressure dominated setup that has pushed waves over land. Could be a dangerous setup.

Looks like the models are trying to develop a cut-off low next week (Oct 23-25) and position it somewhere over the Gulf with the ECMWF the most east over the NE GOM and the GFS furthest west over Northern Mexico with the CMC the strongest and inbetween over the North-Central Gulf coast. With the Bermuda High to the east, the mean 500MB flow over the Western Caribbean between the low and High veers from E to W to SE to NW and eventually N then NE on the ECMWF which allows a TS to develop and track just south of Florida. The GFS on the other hand keeps the flow more E to W over the Western Caribbean longer due to cutoff low being further west over northern Mexico so development doesn't happen due to the vorticity moving inland over the Yucatan.

[CrazyC83]

I'm seeing models showing another intense hybrid low in the NE Atlantic later this week into the weekend...not sure if this one has a chance to go tropical but it would add insult to injury...

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS is finally realizing we are not in an El Nino and builds a very favorable upper pattern over the NW Caribbean next week. Looks like it is going with development now...

[Alyono]

Looks like the GFS is finally realizing we are not in an El Nino and builds a very favorable upper pattern over the NW Caribbean next week. Looks like it is going with development now...

It also has 17 trillion areas of vorticity and is unable to consolidate

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS is nothing exciting expect the potential cold front that moves through the day before Halloween.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS is finally realizing we are not in an El Nino and builds a very favorable upper pattern over the NW Caribbean next week. Looks like it is going with development now...

https://s1.postimg.org/2c2dflyb0f/gfs_m ... atl_36.png

It also has 17 trillion areas of vorticity and is unable to consolidate

LOL - it is like Nate Part 2 only further east.

What the GFS is telling me is development chances are increasing in the Western Caribbean next week, likely stronger than what the GFS is showing at the moment.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the GFS is finally realizing we are not in an El Nino and builds a very favorable upper pattern over the NW Caribbean next week. Looks like it is going with development now...

It also has 17 trillion areas of vorticity and is unable to consolidate

This same thing happened with pre-Nate.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS also spins up an organized TS just south of Jamaica on Nov. 1st.

[gatorcane]

CMC: