2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Steve H.]

Yeah, that Euro run I think is toying with that disturbance near the ITCZ approaching the central Atlantic at about 40W/10N, and other energy to its north. Convection fell off overnight but lets see what today brings

[SFLcane]

GFS will nada this morning...develops a weak low in the epac.

[gatorcane]

This looks rather interesting - east of Bahamas heading west. I know Michael Ventrice mentioned to watch this area and I think this is what the UKMET was picking up on. Looks like a large upper-level low which ends up working down to the surface - much more 850mb vorticity on this run of the GFS. It is rare to get an ULL to work down to the surface but it has happened before (Joaquin 2015). In that case the models didn't give a lot of heads up.

[gatorcane]

Long range 12Z GFS ensembles continue to advertise lowering of pressures across the SW/Southern Caribbean. We are way out in the long-range so not a surprise the GFS has not shown much the past couple of runs. But I could easily see it bringing something back as we get closer:

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/916310752142725121

[floridasun78]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/916310752142725121

are models picking up what bj saying or he getting this from one his forecast models on private site

[WeatherHoon]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/916310752142725121

are models picking up what bj saying or he getting this from one his forecast models on private site

GFS seems to be picking it up at hour 90. Reminds me of Andrew minus the strength.

[gatorcane]

Ends up landfallimg on the east coast of Florida:

[WeatherEmperor]

Ends up landfallimg om the east coast of Florida:

://s1.postimg.org/11o1ii79rj/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_28.png[/img]

The high pressure ridge is unusually strong for this time of year. Very surprised by that.





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[gatorcane]

And look what is back in the long-range. Timeframe is coming in:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Has TS landfall in Florida...

[tgenius]

/img]
18z GFS... Has TS landfall in Florida...

Yikes, thats a little over a week away.. Way too early but as of that run would be further north then Dade/Broward. Good thing GFS confidence at that date range is not high.

[otowntiger]

/img]
18z GFS... Has TS landfall in Florida...

Yikes, thats a little over a week away.. Way too early but as of that run would be further north then Dade/Broward. Good thing GFS confidence at that date range is not high.

And it is just a weakening little T.S. as depicted there. I presume that could change too.

[floridasun78]

18z GFS... Has TS landfall in Florida...

my birthday oct 15

[chaser1]

........ and the hits keep comin' and comin'!

[otowntiger]

18z GFS... Has TS landfall in Florida...

my birthday oct 15

And just like that GFS drops that quicker than a hot potato! Back to nothing in the long range except something weak getting near the mid Atlantic. It is showing an unusual pattern for mid-late October- one that looks to put a lid on development in the usual areas anyway.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 0z Euro and Canadian still have the W Atlantic disturbance, as an open wave or weak low approaching the Bahamas last in the week. GFS splits the energy up into several vorts.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/DxYJiUX.gif
18z GFS... Has TS landfall in Florida...

my birthday oct 15

And just like that GFS drops that quicker than a hot potato! Back to nothing in the long range except something weak getting near the mid Atlantic. It is showing an unusual pattern for mid-late October- one that looks to put a lid on development in the usual areas anyway.

With the La Niña and high heat content over the Caribbean I doubt we will see any lid on development anytime soon.

[EquusStorm]

Aaand the 12z GFS brings back the little E of Bahamas to Florida coast storm, but slightly weaker. Very similar initially to the first run that showed it.

[otowntiger]

Back to nada for the next 16 days.