2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Blinhart]

We can add NAM to the pile, just as I thought it was showing promise as far as accuracy--latest run has Harvey reaching Cat 5 and 92L developing into a storm within 3-4 days--both of which I think have about a 1% chance of happening at most.

Well you shouldn't have been using the 3km NAM or HRRR for hurricanes to begin with. Those models are designed for other purposes.

Well Harvey did make it to Cat 4.

[hd44]

Development is looking likely with the Gfs by day 5 and beyond with the next wave. The formation looks to be gradual and then should result in a significant hurricane. Cmc is showing increasing spin . Gefs ensembles excited.
Moisture looks good.

[hd44]

Number of intense hurricanes being shown. Recurve east of Bermuda not guaranteed yet.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atltropics_53.png[/mg]

Number of intense hurricanes being shown. Recurve east of Bermuda not guaranteed yet.

312 hours that GEFS forecast is pretty useless in my opinion.

Likely this wave struggles all the way until it's east/north east of the islands. If the steering recurves the wave, we'll likely see another Gert type storm. If the wave manages to make it into the Caribbean, then the southern CONUS states need to keep a close eye on this.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atltropics_53.png[/mg]

Number of intense hurricanes being shown. Recurve east of Bermuda not guaranteed yet.

312 hours that GEFS forecast is pretty useless in my opinion.

Likely this wave struggles all the way until it's east/north east of the islands. If the steering recurves the wave, we'll likely see another Gert type storm. If the wave manages to make it into the Caribbean, then the southern CONUS states need to keep a close eye on this.

This all smells like 2005 in terms of systems "Harveying" once they're past the eastern Caribbean/65W. As a resident of SFL, I don't like it.

[AubreyStorm]

Interesting!

[txwatcher91]

We can add NAM to the pile, just as I thought it was showing promise as far as accuracy--latest run has Harvey reaching Cat 5 and 92L developing into a storm within 3-4 days--both of which I think have about a 1% chance of happening at most.

Well you shouldn't have been using the 3km NAM or HRRR for hurricanes to begin with. Those models are designed for other purposes.

Well Harvey did make it to Cat 4.

It actually seems to be doing well. Harvey reached cat 4 and 92L looks like it will be named Irma rather soon... looks like things might start heating up soon from the MDR region.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, GFS, and now the ECMWF are hinting at another GOM system. It is weak though, but it seems to affect Texas.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting!

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082612/gem_z850_vort_atltropics_41.png[/mg]

CMC never fails to entertain lol.

[MacTavish]

Well, GFS, and now the ECMWF are hinting at another GOM system. It is weak though, but it seems to affect Texas.

I was going to post about this as well. Seeing the small group of ensemble members with BOC lows moving north.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Interesting!

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082612/gem_z850_vort_atltropics_41.png[/mg]

CMC never fails to entertain lol.

Question king, if indeed that is your opinion of the Canadian model. Then why do you
post the ongoing runs of cmc in the epac/cpac threads when the model shows canes in those basins. For entertainment ?

[Kingarabian]

Interesting!

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082612/gem_z850_vort_atltropics_41.png[/mg]

CMC never fails to entertain lol.

Question king, if indeed that is your opinion of the Canadian model. Then why do you
post the ongoing runs of cmc in the epac/cpac threads when the model shows canes in those basins. For entertainment ?

Find me a post in which I've ever posted the Canadian or cited it in a Epac/CPAC thread.

Pro tip: You won't find any, at least for this year.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

All seasons lol, Pro Tip?


Almost identical run too the EC on 93L yesterday.





Most pro's consider every model i would think.

[caneman]

All seasons lol, Pro Tip?


Almost identical run too the EC on 93L yesterday.





Most pro's consider every model i would think.

Of course every model should be considered and is by the NHC. It's foolish not to.

[Steve]

12Z European hits the SC LA Coast with an intensifying tropical storm coming from the BoC about @ 1000mb/999mb at Day 7.5 - so roughly next Tuesday night. For whatever reason, it slides it back east toward SELA and weakens it 10mb in about 100 miles. Probably too far out.

GFS slides some weak lows up the western Gulf Coast but really doesn't do anything.

CMC has nothing in the Gulf.

NAVGEM has a small circle of isobars in the BoC at 180 hours.

JMA doesn't show anything. So it's an ECMWF storm only at this point.

[PTrackerLA]

12Z European hits the SC LA Coast with an intensifying tropical storm coming from the BoC about @ 1000mb/999mb at Day 7.5 - so roughly next Tuesday night. For whatever reason, it slides it back east toward SELA and weakens it 10mb in about 100 miles. Probably too far out.

GFS slides some weak lows up the western Gulf Coast but really doesn't do anything.

CMC has nothing in the Gulf.

NAVGEM has a small circle of isobars in the BoC at 180 days.

JMA doesn't show anything. So it's an ECMWF storm only at this point.

Euro new gulf storm gets down to 995mb at 192 hours. So the 12z Euro has 2 tropical storm landfalls in Louisiana within a week of each other.

[Cpv17]

Actually the GFS shows a wave or a depression into Matagorda and hammers another 10-15" of rain over SE TX.

[KWT]

Whether it becomes a TC is really not going to be relevant for this system, models are all agreeing on a slug of moisture and convection coming into Texas again, it could quite easily form into something but I don't think its going to come in all that strong...but it won't need to, that part of Texas would probably re-flood even from a decent frontal event, yet alone a TC.

[Cpv17]

Whether it becomes a TC is really not going to be relevant for this system, models are all agreeing on a slug of moisture and convection coming into Texas again, it could quite easily form into something but I don't think its going to come in all that strong...but it won't need to, that part of Texas would probably re-flood even from a decent frontal event, yet alone a TC.

Completely agree. Just at my house alone we got 25" of rain. Most it's ever rained here at my place in my 29 years here.

[KatDaddy]

53.91" as of 3:40PM. I cannot even imagine another tropical threat for the Upper TX Coast and SE TX next week.