2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:18 pm

GFS keeps the entertainment on long range going with this in Eastern Caribbean that it has been showing in past 6 runs.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#62 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:41 am

For your daily dose of long-range fantasy:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#63 Postby Alyono » Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:42 am

development now starts around day 10
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#64 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:54 am

:uarrow: Let the annual early-season GFS model-canes begin! :lol:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#65 Postby gatorcane » Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:12 am

Long-range CMC joins the GFS and is showing something on both EPAC and Caribbean sides:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#66 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:39 am

:uarrow: I wonder If having something form in the tropics over there would have any implications on the upcoming hurricane season, especially if it formed in the beginning of May.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#67 Postby hcane27 » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:24 pm

I have never seen any study showing a correlation between "early season" formation and the rest of the season
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#68 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:58 pm

Nothing from the EPS and the Euro in regards to that Caribbean system.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:28 am

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#70 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:25 pm

May typically brings the transition to a monsoonal trough scenario across the Western Caribbean, Central America and the Eastern Pacific Regions. While it is certainly too soon to trust any guidance beyond 3 to 5 days, the longer range guidance is "sniffing" the potential of a monsoonal trough developing. In a transitioning Hemispheric Pattern, I'd keep an eye for the potential of early season monsoonal gyre somewhere across the far Western Atlantic and close in Eastern Pacific Basins.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#71 Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:51 pm

I always believe the GFS 384-hr panel, particularly in the western Caribbean in April/May.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#72 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:I always believe the GFS 384-hr panel, particularly in the western Caribbean in April/May.


No sarcasm in the model threads/ jk

You're right in that anyone who believes in a 384hr model run is full of something, should stick to within 7 days
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#73 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:31 pm

Seems every year we go through this pre/early season phantom storm bogus with the GFS. Thankfully it hasn't Given Florida Something yet. :lol:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#74 Postby gatorcane » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:41 pm

I agree the GFS is likely showing a phantom storm... this simulated satellite would be quite shocking if it were to verify for the time of year: :eek:

Image

My guess is we end up with some kind of broad low on EPAC side that doesn't organize into anything significant.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#75 Postby hcane27 » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:48 pm

phantom maybe , maybe not ... i believe we are entering a paradigm shift in what we have become used to as far as the sensible weather ...... time will tell ...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#76 Postby chaser1 » Thu Apr 27, 2017 2:36 pm



:wink: VERY true..............., however, GFS mid to long range has seemingly remained fairly consistent with advertising a couple of very late in the year fronts to drop south into Florida, with the second of the two seemingly having more significant mid level support along with it. I'm not suggesting that this will transpire however should it, then I think it would be rather sensible of a set-up for a lobe of vorticity to form out of a climatological monsoonal trough over Central America that may well become a bit more ENE to WSW tilted in response to such an unusually deep CONUS mid level trough that drops into the Eastern GOM. Whether or not this pattern verifies I don't see unusually adverse surface pressure or present semi-persistent westerlies forecast as inhibiting factors. Even with all that said, I'm not suggesting that we'll see a named storm out of it all either - but its possible and certainly not unreasonable. For now, i'd guess that we'll see an early season T.D. form in the W. Caribbean or some point south of Cuba a few days before - or after the Full Moon (May 10)
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#77 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:48 pm

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#78 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Apr 28, 2017 1:04 pm

Looks like whatever forms, if anything, would take it north/west into GoM.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#79 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:58 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Looks like whatever forms, if anything, would take it north/west into GoM.

Typical June track.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 03, 2017 5:44 am

:darrow: Upgrades coming shortly to GFS and ECMWF on June 20.

@RyanMaue
New GFS model upgrade scheduled on June 20, 2017.
ECMWF has announced their next upgrade (Cycle 43r3) on June 20, 2017.


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/859634089745420289


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