2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[dukeblue219]

I believe every month on the calendar has seen a TC somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

On a whim I Googled this to see if February or March has ever seen one, since I couldn't recall any. There's only been 1 March storm in recorded history, but it was a Cat2 hurricane in 1908. The more you know....

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECM EPS has a 20% chance of TD development in the central to east central GOM come Sunday.

[boca]

Is that from a homegrown system?

[sunnyday]

What part of Fl is due to get the tropical storm this week, Tampabayhurricane?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What part of Fl is due to get the tropical storm this week, Tampabayhurricane?

FL is not due to get a tropical storm this week, but it might get breezy and rainy late week and next weekend.
There is a separate thread on talkin tropics discussing an area of disturbed weather that will approach FL this week. It is too early to tell if it will just be rain or a tropical system. Fortunately most models keep it really weak. Theoretically it could be a short lived TS or produce conditions similar to one regardless of development:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119307

I will also keep my eye on the Caribbean for later in the month. The model runs in this thread show some lowering pressures around Oct 20th. We will see what happens.

[blp]

12z FIM one of the only other models we can see out as far as the GFS now agrees with the GFS on possible mischief in the long range and in the same area. Starts developing in the 306hr. Its going to take a few more days to be in range of the other more reliable models.

[gatorcane]

The GFS overnight runs continue to show lowering of pressures over the SW and West-Central Caribbean with the GFS OP developing canes the past two runs. Still feeling we will get a hurricane down in the Caribbean later this month quite possibly a major.

[otowntiger]

The GFS overnight runs continue to show lowering of pressures over the SW and West-Central Caribbean with the GFS OP developing canes the past two runs. Still feeling we will get a hurricane down in the Caribbean later this month quite possibly a major.

what's the latest show?

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS overnight runs continue to show lowering of pressures over the SW and West-Central Caribbean with the GFS OP developing canes the past two runs. Still feeling we will get a hurricane down in the Caribbean later this month quite possibly a major.

what's the latest show?

Nada!

[HurricaneFan]

Is the development in the long range in the SW Caribbean from a Tropical Wave that is around 35W right now?

[otowntiger]

The GFS overnight runs continue to show lowering of pressures over the SW and West-Central Caribbean with the GFS OP developing canes the past two runs. Still feeling we will get a hurricane down in the Caribbean later this month quite possibly a major.

what's the latest show?

Nada!

lol! That's what I sorta figured when I didn't see any more posts on it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Latest GFS shows nothing near FL for the foreseeable future. A wave crosses FL this weekend, but it is depicted as very weak. But watch out late Oct into November as MJO and La Nina team up for potentially a Caribbean showdown.

[GCANE]

Looks like we may have something currently at about 10N 37W
Remarkably strong LL Vort and good convection.
GFS appears to break it up near the islands and then reform a bit later,
Moves into the Bahamas to dissipate and then reform a bit south.
Spins up then and hits the east coast.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS brings back the Western Caribbean ~Oct 20th low in the long-range but moves it into Central America before it gets a chance to get going. It has a good upper environment, best I have seen in the past few days of runs. The stagnant pattern of wide and expansive GOM/Caribbean/FL ridging seems to be suppressing any Western Caribbean development at least for now.

[blp]

Its the FIM so take it with a grain of salt but is also one of the few models we have looking out toward late October. Most bullish run so far.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and CFS are both showing a more favorable MJO end-of-month, for example, the GFS below. I find it hard to believe we won't get one more Caribbean storm, possibly a major before all is said and done especially with no El Nino and warmer than normal SSTs across the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Another view of the CFS. Looks like the last week in October will be the time to watch corresponding to a potential wet-phase of the MJO pulse. The GEPS (CMC ensembles) are starting to show hits that last week also, CFS below:

[Usf11]

The abc met frim Tampa said hurricane season is over fir Florida. Doesn't see anything fir the next 4 weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like whatever may develop in the Western Caribbean should have an exit route up and out without affecting Florida or the continental U.S. The Greater Antilles and the Bahamas may not be so lucky.

[TheStormExpert]

The abc met frim Tampa said hurricane season is over fir Florida. Doesn't see anything fir the next 4 weeks.

Don’t tell me this the same guy who said this prior to Nate?