2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2221 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:09 pm

Add the 12z JMA to the list showing Caribbean development

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2222 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:11 pm

:uarrow: 1st run it shows it too. I fully expect the GFS to join in the next run or two.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2223 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:Come on CMC lol the 28th? That’s my 40th birthday :0(


Lol mine too...but I'm at the age where they can't bake cakes big enough to fit all the candles anymore. :)
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2224 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:18 pm

12z EPS Ensembles.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2225 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:33 pm

That's a heavy lean to the Caribbean
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2226 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:02 pm

12Z UKMET:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2227 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:29 pm

Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2228 Postby CourierPR » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.


Can you give a screen shot?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2229 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:56 pm

looks like the typical slow moving october ACE munching storm will be forming.

Hope when it doodles, it doodles over the open Caribbean and not near land, or else we'll be talking about massive flooding
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2230 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:22 pm

CourierPR wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.


Can you give a screen shot?

Still nothing from the GFS.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2231 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:41 pm

Happy Hour GFS OP still holding out. Let's see if ensembles continue to disagree.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2232 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:11 pm

The 12z Euro Control run has a 992mb storm in the NW Caribbean heading NE/NNE towards Southewestern Cuba and weakening to 1005mb just south of the Isle of Youth while heading slowly due north.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2233 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:16 pm

18z “Happy Hour” GEFS continues to move the area into Central America around Nicaragua in a week with little to no development prior to it.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2234 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:28 pm

18z GEFS at 240hrs

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2235 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:18 pm

12Z NASA model 120 hours:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2236 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:19 pm

GFS INSISTS we are in an el niño and that the SST maps are wrong. It insists that this will form in the EPAC. meanwhile, CMC and UKMET have a Caribbean system
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2237 Postby Usf11 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:33 pm

With the cold front coming I don't think Florida will see any action. If a ts or hurricane hits Florida I will donate $85 to the site.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2238 Postby WeatherHoon » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:44 pm

Usf11 wrote:With the cold front coming I don't think Florida will see any action. If a ts or hurricane hits Florida I will donate $85 to the site.


If a storm can get itself somewhere near the Yucatán Channel while a cold front is dipping down, I'd say chances go up for a Florida impact.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2239 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:03 am

Alyono wrote:GFS INSISTS we are in an el niño and that the SST maps are wrong. It insists that this will form in the EPAC. meanwhile, CMC and UKMET have a Caribbean system

The GFS has had a severe EPAC bias since it was upgraded. Probably modeled upwards of 10 convective feedback driven major hurricanes that never became nearly as strong.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2240 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:05 am

00z Euro completely drops development.
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