2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2241 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:34 am

00Z NASA model even stronger:

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2242 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:56 am

06Z NAVGEM on the Caribbean side:

Image

00Z UKMET:

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2243 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:56 am

All the global models develop including the UKMET but the EC and GFS.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2244 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:20 am

Big flare up this morning down in the Caribbean possibly the beginnings of something developing down there.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2245 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:31 am

SFLcane wrote:Big flare up this morning down in the Caribbean possibly the beginnings of something developing down there.


Looks like it is firing along a shear axis,much like how Franklin spun up.
Watching just east of Guatamala where shear is the lowest.
Not much vort at the moment, but could go if convection persists.
Some stacking of LL Convergence and UL Divergence.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2246 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:41 am

Interesting.

Closest buoy at 1010 mb, winds gusting to 35 knots.
Could be a votical hot tower firing at dawn in the low-shear area just east of Guat.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2247 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:45 am

NHC has yet to indicate anything in the 5-day outlook. GFS still shows any deep moisture pulled north along the next cold front by late in the week without any tropical development (perhaps a frontal low).

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... C&ps=area#
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2248 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:35 am

Frank2 wrote:NHC has yet to indicate anything in the 5-day outlook. GFS still shows any deep moisture pulled north along the next cold front by late in the week without any tropical development (perhaps a frontal low).

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... C&ps=area#


Frank this is still out of 5 day range in there outlook.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2249 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:47 am

I know, perhaps by tomorrow or Monday morning if the GFS changes, but the very active US pattern right now has a cold front every 3-4 days, and it seems that will pick up anything that tries to develop (low temp in West Palm Beach by Thursday morning in the 60s)...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2250 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:02 am

So every model but the two most reliable ones (GFS & Euro) show development. Those two models just move it inland into Central America with no development.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2251 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:15 am

12z GFS develops a 1003mb TS just before moving inland into Nicaragua in 120hrs. (5 days).

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2252 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:27 am

Looks like the GFS splits the energy with one half heading to Ft Myers and one half near the coast of Honduras, I feel though this will really be one area instead of a split
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2253 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:31 am

Started a new topic on the western Caribbean disturbance
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2254 Postby gatorcane » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:10 am

Might we get a November hurricane in the SW Caribbean? How the 06Z GFS run ends with a deepening system heading NE. Previous GFS runs have been flirting with the idea of a system too so this is not the first run it showed something. Hope not for the Caribbean's sake!

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2255 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:14 am

gatorcane wrote:Might we get a November hurricane in the SW Caribbean? How the 06Z GFS run ends with a deepening system heading NE. Previous GFS runs have been flirting with the idea of a system too so this is not the first run it showed something. Hope not for the Caribbean's sake!

https://s1.postimg.org/1yqkbo2273/gfs_m ... atl_53.png

Can’t rule it out, especially since we are in a weak La Niña now and shear seems to be below average at the moment. I’m not in the “season is over” camp yet - I think we will see at least one more named storm before the season ends as a majority of La Niña seasons have a storm form in November.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2256 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:15 am

Image
06z GFS says not so fast to the end of the season...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2257 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:14 am

This is the type of season for a wrong way storm, if it should happen again. Hopefully it misses all the islands OR it's just the GFS having some long range fun.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2258 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:51 am

GFS shows it again on 12z but more west than before.

Image

Image


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2259 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:01 pm

Image
12z GFS...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2260 Postby Kazmit » Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:17 pm

I'm not totally convinced that this season is over. We're in a quiet period now, but there's still almost a month left in the calendar season.
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