2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2261 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:28 pm

18z GFS MUCH weaker with long-range Caribbean development, even pushes back timeframe some.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2262 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:18 am

GFS and CMC are stronger at 0Z, but are trending more westward. Showing a very strong ridge north of the system
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2263 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:23 pm

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2264 Postby CourierPR » Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:53 pm

Gatorcane, according to that 12Z GFS, there is strong high pressure to the north. Interesting setup.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2265 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:57 pm

The 12Z Euro shows a strong ridge over the Eastern US along with lowering pressures in the Caribbean. It also shows a persistent area of vort developing over the SW Caribbean by late next week. We may have one last Caribbean system to watch.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2266 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:52 pm

i want see more support we now into month of nov
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2267 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:36 am

The long-range 06Z GEFS is quite enthusiastic:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2268 Postby Visioen » Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:20 pm

Still possible.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2269 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:53 pm

his Puerto Rico and the NE Islands on the 0Z run
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2270 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:26 am

Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.

Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2271 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:27 am

EquusStorm wrote:Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.

Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.


a west to east track is NOT that uncommon late in the year. Happened with Klaus in 1984, Lenny in 1999, and Omar in 2008 (Omar was a miracle as it tracked between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin providing little impact to both locations despite being a cat 4

west to east tracks occur about once a decade
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2272 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:14 am

Alyono wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.

Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.


a west to east track is NOT that uncommon late in the year. Happened with Klaus in 1984, Lenny in 1999, and Omar in 2008 (Omar was a miracle as it tracked between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin providing little impact to both locations despite being a cat 4

west to east tracks occur about once a decade


True. I do remember Omar well, that track should've been catastrophic but came out far better than expected. Paloma the next month also moved northeast if I recall (but in the WCarib where that's very common) but Lenny still intrigues me the most with less northward component than the others, though. Not that it's a super special track, just really interesting.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2273 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:56 pm

This looks like a Paloma (2008) track up to Cuba (not the rest of it though)
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2274 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:28 pm

Weaker, later, weaker, later - a sign of a bogus development prediction. Still an area to keep an eye on late season, but development chances are low.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2275 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:05 am

This is Casey Kasem with American (Model) top 40 (Forecast Busts), counting down yet another familiar old fashioned love song. Whether you simply love, or love to hate its over-reaching tropical beat, the GFS is back with yet another "384hour-acane" :band:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017110600&fh=384
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2276 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:19 am

:uarrow: Just one more reason some of us Floridians cant help but enjoy the GFS 384 hr. forecast..... Some like it Cold, while others a bit more "Tropical Bold". In terms of wish-casts though, the GFS seldom fails to deliver :ggreen:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2277 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:08 am

GFS going cat 5 into bangladesh. Seeing more signs in the models that there will be a significant cyclone in the Bay of Bengal
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2278 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:58 am

Image

Big difference @192hrs with the two models atm. GFS over hyping maybe.

Image

Image

http://www.wx.graphics/
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2279 Postby MetroMike » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:33 pm

Yes that IS global.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2280 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:27 pm

EC seems lost, as is almost always the case with monsoon trough genesis

UKMET also showing a significant cyclone
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