2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2281 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:55 pm

We could see yet another non-tropical low form in the central subtropical Atlantic next week that will need to be watched for possible TC/STC genesis.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2282 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:55 pm

re Alyono Bangladesh cyclone.

Ukmet also has shown intense cyclones in the bob over past seasons that don't verify.
Wait and see i guess but its EC for me.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2283 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:17 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:We could see yet another non-tropical low form in the central subtropical Atlantic next week that will need to be watched for possible TC/STC genesis.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_27.png


Tis' the season of subtropical slop :D
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2284 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:30 pm

3 more slops until the W storm :lol:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2285 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:49 pm

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2286 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:17 pm

Maybe this bad season is over at last.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2287 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:37 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Maybe this bad season is over at last.

Possibly. However, it would be very "2017 like" if we could squeeze in 3 more TC formations and run the list out.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2288 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:41 pm

Very strong signal from the GFS and GEFS in the long-range:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2289 Postby Visioen » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:53 pm

GFS doesn't want it to be over.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2290 Postby blp » Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:00 pm

FIM has it as well.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2291 Postby Visioen » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:03 am

GFS showing development again (don't know what happened at 00z run).

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2292 Postby Visioen » Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:22 pm

Nothing at 12z GFS.
Strong development at 18z. (images)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2293 Postby Visioen » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:28 am

Don't know about 00z run.
06z showing development.
Trending later tough.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2294 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:00 am

Visioen wrote:Don't know about 00z run.
06z showing development.
Trending later tough.

Image

Probably a phantom
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2295 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:37 pm

season is near a end!!!! thank goodness!! I expect 2018 to be pretty active with no EL NINO!!!
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2296 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:44 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:season is near a end!!!! thank goodness!! I expect 2018 to be pretty active with no EL NINO!!!

Way too soon to even begin to speculate on what the 2018 Atlantic season might be like as last year at this time people were starting to say another El Niño would occur this season. Currently we are in yet another La Niña instead.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2297 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:14 am

6z showing a well defined TS at hour 174 swinging SW, then moving W through the subtropics before weakening

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2298 Postby Frank2 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:32 am

NHC now mentioning it.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2299 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:49 am

Upper air really doesn't look Nina like yet.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2300 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:20 pm

The latest GFS and ECM runs are persistently show a possible subtropical or tropical low over the far East Atlantic, which is pretty strong in some runs (like now). The development also seems very rapidly (he estimated peak is around +72 hours now).

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