2017 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

GFS has been fifty fifty with the MJO as late.

Not only about the tropical activity in the Pacific, but I'm also wondering if it will cause significant westerly wind bursts and play a role in ENSO..that is, if the GFS forecast verifies.

[doomhaMwx]

There is also an increasing likelihood that another circulation/Low Pressure Area will form over the South China Sea, west of Luzon, within the next 48hrs as Sonca nears landfall or weakens over land...




06z GFS quickly intensifies this feature...

[1900hurricane]

Heh, the 12Z ECMWF actually develops a tropical storm in the Sea of Japan that makes landfall near the China/North Korea/Russia borders. Even outside the extended taus in this weird setup, that's something I'd have to see to believe.

[dexterlabio]

Heh, the 12Z ECMWF actually develops a tropical storm in the Sea of Japan that makes landfall near the China/North Korea/Russia borders. Even outside the extended taus in this weird setup, that's something I'd have to see to believe.

My Euro-biased self is saying it is possible. Though is it unprecedented, or has anything like that happened before?

Btw the Himawari8 images are back!

[doomhaMwx]

Heh, the 12Z ECMWF actually develops a tropical storm in the Sea of Japan that makes landfall near the China/North Korea/Russia borders. Even outside the extended taus in this weird setup, that's something I'd have to see to believe.

My Euro-biased self is saying it is possible. Though is it unprecedented, or has anything like that happened before?

Btw the Himawari8 images are back!

I have also been wondering if there are documented/suspected cases of (Sub)Tropical cyclone formations in the Sea of Japan before

[euro6208]

Most likely. EURO however drops the system in the latest run.

[euro6208]

There is also an increasing likelihood that another circulation/Low Pressure Area will form over the South China Sea, west of Luzon, within the next 48hrs as Sonca nears landfall or weakens over land...


06z GFS quickly intensifies this feature...

Interesting that EURO is more robust with this now. Crosses between Luzon and Taiwan and peaks it at 983 mb moving east.

GFS is on crack with this. Seems to get absorbed into future Nesat AFTER hitting Taiwan and becoming a Super storm, 915mb, hitting Western Japan.

[euro6208]

Quite an active days ago. JMA, NAVGEM, EURO and GFS all indicating more to develop especially at high latitudes.

[euro6208]

We are just nearing the tip of the iceberg. August is the peak month of the season followed by September. October and onward slower but features some of the most intense TC's to ever develop in the world.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/889973645937975298

[1900hurricane]

Heh, the 12Z ECMWF actually develops a tropical storm in the Sea of Japan that makes landfall near the China/North Korea/Russia borders. Even outside the extended taus in this weird setup, that's something I'd have to see to believe.

[image reomved]

My Euro-biased self is saying it is possible. Though is it unprecedented, or has anything like that happened before?

Btw the Himawari8 images are back!

I have also been wondering if there are documented/suspected cases of (Sub)Tropical cyclone formations in the Sea of Japan before

There are none as far as I am aware. Even when it is considerably warmer than normal like currently, the water temperatures will barely exceed 20ºC.

[dexterlabio]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/889973645937975298

Another reverse-oriented monsoon trough just like the same time last year, though we have seen the systems forming out of that kind of trough setup aren't very healthy. I'm not sure if that will still be the case this time around. Been following the MJO updates and it looks like the wet phase will hang around the WPAC for extended period. Euro and GFS forecasts suggest weakening of the signal in Phase 6 then being reborn in Phase 5. If this pans out I think this streak of tropical activity will continue well within the first half of August.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

92W Thread

93W Thread

94W Thread

More tagged.

[euro6208]

Scary how the WPAC just suddenly woke up from it's deep sleep and massacres the coastline of Asia/Pacific.

Talas into Hainan/Vietnam

Roke into Southern China

Sonca Into Hainan/Vietnam

Noru possibly into Japan

and now Nesat into Taiwan?

Very different from the EPAC...

[1900hurricane]

My newest update is up! Forecasting the WPac this week is hard.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 26, 2017

[euro6208]

GFS has a super outbreak as the monsoon trough becomes reverse oriented. Counted maybe 6-7 developing.

[doomhaMwx]

COMS visible satellite image just before sunset today(July 27th) of the developing Invest 92W and Tropical Cyclones Nesat and Noru... What's left of Tropical Storm Kulap is also found just to the SW of Typhoon Noru...

On a side note, can you also see the smoke/smog originating from eastern China? It's fairly noticeable on this image...


Image date/time: 07-27-2017 8:00am UTC

[doomhaMwx]

COMS visible satellite image just before sunset today(July 27th) of the developing Invest 92W and Tropical Cyclones Nesat and Noru... What's left of Tropical Storm Kulap is also found just to the SW of Typhoon Noru...

On a side note, can you also see the smoke/smog originating from eastern China? It's fairly noticeable on this image...


Image date/time: 07-27-2017 8:00am UTC

The smoke/smog is well-depicted on Himawari-8 True Color imagery... Image also from 08z today...

[dexterlabio]

So the smog from China is the Western Pacific's SAL (Saharan Air Layer)?