2017 WPAC Season

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Gotcha! Are you surprised?! There's new invest, near where Banyan's origins were located. That's Invest 93W! On CMC, this is forecast to survive long enough to see itself as a new storm under the name "Sanvu" (or Guchol, but Yellow Sea storm seems will never ever be named). I don't know for another models right now, but i think CMC might be right.

Invest 93W is nowhere near Banyan originated...
Next name's "Hato" by the way...

Thanks for correction.

[euro6208]

GFS with Pakhar. CMC on board for a while.

[euro6208]

Just look at how strong that dry phrase of the MJO is over the WPAC. It's massive. It'll retreat soon and coincide with the formation of twin TC's. Looking like September will be pretty active. Also note the kelvin wave that will be passing over.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Personally, i think 2017 season had a vibes that this will repeat 2013 season's hyperactivity. I am bit afraid of this.

[euro6208]

By this date compared to 2013. Very robust of you. However this year is shaping to be similiar to 2013 in terms of enso. No el nino or nina, just neutral.

2 Tropical Depression THIRTE 17-17 AUG 25 -
13 Typhoon-1 TRAMI 17-21 AUG 75 1
14 Typhoon-1 PEWA 18-25 AUG 65 1
15 Tropical Storm UNALA 19-19 AUG 35 -
16 Tropical Storm KONG_REY 26-31 AUG 55 -
17 Tropical Storm TORAJI 01-04 SEP 50 -
18 Tropical Storm MAN_YI 12-16 SEP 60 -
19 Super Typhoon-5 USAGI 16-22 SEP 140 5
20 Tropical Depression EIGHTE 18-18 SEP 25 -
21 Typhoon-2 PABUK 21-26 SEP 90 2
22 Typhoon-2 WUTIP 26-30 SEP 90 2
23 Tropical Storm SEPAT 30 SEP-02 OCT 35 -
24 Typhoon-2 FITOW 30 SEP-06 OCT 90 2
25 Super Typhoon-4 DANAS 03-08 OCT 125 4
26 Typhoon-3 NARI 09-15 OCT 105 3
27 Typhoon-4 WIPHA 10-15 OCT 115 4
28 Super Typhoon-5 FRANCISCO 16-25 OCT 140 5
29 Super Typhoon-5 LEKIMA 20-26 OCT 140 5
30 Typhoon-3 KROSA 29 OCT-04 NOV 100 3
31 Super Typhoon-5 HAIYAN 03-11 NOV 170 5
32 Tropical Storm THIRTY 03-06 NOV 35 -
33 Tropical Depression PODUL 14-15 NOV 25 -
34 Tropical Depression THIRTY 03-03 DEC 30 -

[1900hurricane]

Where we stand compared to some recent years:

[euro6208]

Sanvu?

[doomhaMwx]

HongKong Observatory's(HKO) overview of the eight Tropical Cyclones that formed in July 2017...
http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/tc2017/tc1707.htm

[euro6208]

EURO drops the Pakhar to be and delays it's development until the end of the month. GFS on the other hand has Pakhar passing south of Hong Kong on the 26th.

[euro6208]

EURO develops what the GFS is developing into Pakhar again. Follows Hato. GFS stronger at landfall in Southern China.

[euro6208]

One two punch for Hong Kong.

[euro6208]

Can already see another large circulation in the Philippine sea that the models (EURO and GFS) are developing into Pakhar to follow in the footsteps of Hato..

[euro6208]

INVEST 96W THREAD

[euro6208]

TC activity looks to continue near 20N from Vietnam through 135E in both outlook periods. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate development by the weekend near the Phillipines of a system that then tracks towards Hainan and Vietnam. The ECMWF ensembles indicate a second system developing to the west of the Mariana Islands late in Week-1 or early in Week-2, leading to identical areas of moderate confidence for formation over the next two weeks.

[euro6208]

Nothing on the horizon on the last week of August but the models but 00Z GFS hinting of another recurving typhoon well north of the Marianas and southeast of Japan.

[euro6208]

ECMWF's forecast for mean sea level pressure is something to take notice. It has lowering pressures beginning next month.

[1900hurricane]

Just posted a new, brief entry.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 24, 2017

[euro6208]

Nothing on the horizon on the last week of August but one of the models 00Z GFS hinting of another recurving typhoon well north of the Marianas and southeast of Japan.

Well GFS further develops this and peaks it at 901 mb after inundating the Northern Marianas. Not sure if this is 97W or maybe they might retag it?

97W Thread

It's one large circulation.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]