2017 WPAC Season

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#661 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:12 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#662 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:01 am

Image

Tembin thread

Very active season storm wise.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#663 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:10 am

Named storms have been near average, but stats such as Average TS Duration, ACE per TS, and ACE per TS Day are all in the bottom three going back to 1970.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#664 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:34 am

1900hurricane wrote:Named storms have been near average, but stats such as Average TS Duration, ACE per TS, and ACE per TS Day are all in the bottom three going back to 1970.

Definitely a weak season, that's for sure. Only one minimal Category 5 equivalent and that was for just 6 hours (Noru). What's really notable about this season is how weak the storms have been east of the Philippines. Not a single typhoon has hit the Philippines this year. Feels like the WPAC's 2013, to a lesser extreme.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#665 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:47 pm

My biggest complaint on the year would have to be the handling of Typhoon Banyan by both JMA and JTWC. I think both agencies were for the most part too low with intensity from genesis to extratropical transition of the small typhoon, but particularly when Banyan rapidly intensified on August 12th. Instantaneous DTs were nearly that expected of a category 5 by 18Z. Constraints obviously come into play, but I think it's safe to assume that it ended up becoming a category 3 at the end of the intensification bout, and I'd even argue for a category 4 (although I am a little aggressive at times).

Image

At the time of the image above, the JMA intensity estimate was 70 kt and the one from JTWC was at 80 kt.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#666 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:53 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Named storms have been near average, but stats such as Average TS Duration, ACE per TS, and ACE per TS Day are all in the bottom three going back to 1970.

Definitely a weak season, that's for sure. Only one minimal Category 5 equivalent and that was for just 6 hours (Noru). What's really notable about this season is how weak the storms have been east of the Philippines. Not a single typhoon has hit the Philippines this year. Feels like the WPAC's 2013, to a lesser extreme.

What if the GFS gets its right with 98W? Hmmm.... Not to mention Tembin, now approaching typhoon status headed for the most unprecedented location: Southern Palawan
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#667 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:04 pm

I'd say that the names (JMA names) used this season that have the most potential to get retired are:

Nanmadol
Hato
Doksuri
Lan
Damrey
Tembin
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#668 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:35 pm

#BringBackVicente :lol:
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#669 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:48 am

2017 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONES

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#670 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:49 am

The ATCR report will be out next month or sooner.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#671 Postby NotoSans » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:15 pm

Below are some of the major adjustments that JTWC has made in their 2017 best track.
1. Noru’s peak intensity was adjusted downward to 135 knots, meaning that 2017 was the first WPAC season since 1977 without a category 5 based on JTWC best track.
2. Banyan’s peak intensity was bumped up to 110 knots.
3. Nammadol’s peak intensity was adjusted to 65 knots, making it a category 1.
4. Nalgae’s peak intensity was bumped up to 60 knots but it was classified as a subtropical storm during its peak.

Storms in SHEM generally received an upward adjustment of 5-10 knots in peak intensity. In particular,
1. Ernie’s peak intensity was adjusted to 140 knots, making it a category 5;
2. Debbie’s peak intensity was also revised to 115 knots, making it a category 4;
3. Donna’s peak intensity was bumped up to 125 knots as well.

For NIO, Mora’s peak intensity was revised to 80 knots while there were no major adjustments for other storms.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#672 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:05 pm

40 year record of category 5's broken. Incredible.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#673 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:38 pm

Here are the 2017 totals and differences from operational in the table format I like to use.

Image

Image

I haven't done any reanalysis for 1977 yet, but I do suspect that year had a system or two worthy of category 5 intensity. The next year prior to that without a category 5 is 1974, although I'm also a little skeptical with 1999 and Bart personally.
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