2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Models on and off hinting on Talas developing near the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Lastly, in the West Pacific a moderate risk of tropical cyclone formation is indicated from the South China Sea through 140E centered on 15N during Week-2 where statistical guidance suggests ideal conditions for a disturbance to develop, while dynamical model guidance also portrays this area as wet during Week-2.

[euro6208]

GFS has something similiar in the 06Z run but further west in the South China Sea. 12Z drops it.

[1900hurricane]

2017 has now fallen below 2016 in terms of ACE. Going back to the beginning of the 1980s, only 1998, 1983, and 2010 have had lower ACE at this point in the year.

[euro6208]

July 6 update calls for significantly lower numbers:

25 Tropical Storms
15 Typhoons
7 Major Typhoons
ACE of 250.

Season so far is 3 TS, 1 TY (Likely upgraded postseason). Still plenty of activity left.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[euro6208]

NAVGEM



CMC is all over the place after this system



GFS with a Taiwan threat. Looks to be another TS.



EURO fails to develop it.

[euro6208]

Development in just 300 hours.

[1900hurricane]

I created a WordPress account to host my blogs. I made a post this afternoon to get a little warmed up, but my first real tropical analysis probably will not be coming until next week.

https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

[dexterlabio]

I created a WordPress account to host my blogs. I made a post this afternoon to get a little warmed up, but my first real tropical analysis probably will not be coming until next week.

https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Glad that you pick Wordpress. I know you can personalise your posts and website with a handful of tools with Wordpress.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I have completed my first full blog post of the season. In it, I look at upper level subsidence overspreading the basin, a weak disturbance south of Japan, and some possible activity on the monsoon trough later in the week.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 9, 2017

[dexterlabio]

I have completed my first full blog post of the season. In it, I look at upper level subsidence overspreading the basin, a weak disturbance south of Japan, and some possible activity on the monsoon trough later in the week.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 9, 2017

Nice read as always. As you mentioned, the Euro is hinting on tropical activity in SCS/Western Philippine sea region, likely due to the emergence of the SW Monsoon. I already mentioned this in the Atlantic thread, but I thought the reason why the Euro is showing activity in this part of the world in the next 10 days vs. GFS favoring the Caribbean system is due to different MJO forecast. The Euro is showing the suppressed phase over the Atlantic (favorable in MC/WPAC), while GFS has the opposite.

[dexterlabio]

^but to add, I noticed a few GFS ensemble members popping up development near Luzon/Taiwan in the same timeframe as what the Euro is showing. Still, not enough ensemble support to be sure.

[1900hurricane]

I have completed my first full blog post of the season. In it, I look at upper level subsidence overspreading the basin, a weak disturbance south of Japan, and some possible activity on the monsoon trough later in the week.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 9, 2017

Nice read as always. As you mentioned, the Euro is hinting on tropical activity in SCS/Western Philippine sea region, likely due to the emergence of the SW Monsoon. I already mentioned this in the Atlantic thread, but I thought the reason why the Euro is showing activity in this part of the world in the next 10 days vs. GFS favoring the Caribbean system is due to different MJO forecast. The Euro is showing the suppressed phase over the Atlantic (favorable in MC/WPAC), while GFS has the opposite.

Yep, there are some differences between the two for sure, with the ECMWF amplifying it more. As of 12Z at least, it appears Madden-Julian extends just far enough to the east across SE Asia to be a benefit for tropical cyclogenesis in the European solution.

[dexterlabio]

First few frames of the latest GFS run already seeing what the Euro has seen on its previous 2 runs.

[1900hurricane]

00Z GFS is much weaker with the surge of the SW monsoon than the ECMWF was at 12Z. Without that added convergence, it can't get a system going.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/884273208849031169

[tolakram]

Hi all,

the RAMMB SLIDER has a nice solution for WPAC images:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=9488&y=10416&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=12&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Numerous bands available.

[euro6208]

The global models aren't too enthusiastic.

Besides the robust CMC, NAVGEM, GFS, and EURO doesn't develop anything significant although they try to develop something weak in the SCS before landfall in Vietnam. GFS has a crossover from the CPAC though.

[1900hurricane]

By the end of tomorrow (July 13th), WPac year to date ACE will have been surpassed by 2010. Truly a putrid start this year as far as total activity is concerned.

[dexterlabio]

^And still nothing from the models, even the Euro which I thought to be the most enthusiastic about bringing favorable conditions back in this basin.