2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#581 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:07 am

That looks like a TS already.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#582 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:29 am

euro6208 wrote:That looks like a TS already.

http://i67.tinypic.com/vg67gg.jpg

I'd say TD and models are ramping it up. Why isn't this even tagged as 99W?? Or an LPA by JMA??? :double:

PAGASA and our national media are concerned about this potential TC which may bring >300 mm of rain in some areas and even 50-75 kt winds
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#583 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:44 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image
GFS 7 days out. GFS has consistently predicted development of an LPA to the east of the PIs, tracking it westwards across northern Luzon towards Hainan island

it's actually the Visayas (as a TS) coming from both the ECMWF and GFS
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#584 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:24 am

euro6208 wrote:That looks like a TS already.

http://i67.tinypic.com/vg67gg.jpg


Not sure if there is a closed circulation but there's a lot of >15knot barbs around it ( there's even a 25 knots barb)
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#585 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:37 am

mrbagyo wrote:
euro6208 wrote:That looks like a TS already.

[img]http://i67.tinypic.com/vg67gg.jpg[img]


Not sure if there is a closed circulation but there's a lot of >15knot barbs around it ( there's even a 25 knots barb)
[img]http://imageshack.com/a/img923/1/EWTb0M.png[img]

Shouldn't it be an Invest already?! The Navy seems to be slow in designating Invests lately...
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#586 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:26 am

Interesting that JTWC is not even mentioning the feature in their outlook. It will likely become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours, and a good chance it will become a typhoon in the SCS this weekend.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#587 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:42 am

Dead calm in Palau

000
SAKA31 PTKR 071500
METAR PTKR 071450Z 00000KT 15SM FEW018 BKN120 OVC300 26/24 A2976 RMK SLP079 8/178 T02560243 58003=
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#588 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:56 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:https://i.imgur.com/S802Jcf.png
GFS 7 days out. GFS has consistently predicted development of an LPA to the east of the PIs, tracking it westwards across northern Luzon towards Hainan island

it's actually the Visayas (as a TS) coming from both the ECMWF and GFS


Ok i was was more interested in when the models show a powerful typhoon.


Image
Image

PI
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#589 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:52 pm

Still not even an invest, and I think there's a high chance this will be a tropical storm within 24hrs.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#590 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:44 pm

Just got tagged - Invest 99W
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#591 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:13 am

GFS for the past 2 runs has been hinting of another SCS season. The 3rd one had a major storm impacting Western Micronesia.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#592 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:40 pm

Haiyan like track. GFS is sniffing on something and the timeframe is much closer...156 hours.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#593 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:17 am

Again

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#594 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 4:07 am

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#595 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:28 am

Much weaker on the EURO and GFS runs...EURO only has a LPA/TD at landfall with little to no intensification before hitting stricken Vietnam. GFS 996mb but weakens it before coming ashore.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#596 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:21 am

The models trying to develop this but nothing significant.

Image

EURO

Image

GFS

Image

ASCAT Analysis shows a weak circulation is SSE of Yap near 3N140E.
Surface troughs with areas of showers extend to the northwest and
north of the circulation center. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are approaching both Yap and Koror this afternoon. The circulation
will continue slowly west with showery weather and moderate winds
for Yap through Thursday and for Koror probably through Friday.
Improving weather is still expected by the weekend.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#597 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:23 am

Image

Very long range GFS.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#598 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:17 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#599 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:36 am

GFS still sensing some trouble around Guam.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#600 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:51 pm

Looks like that area of cloudiness south of Guam has a circulation.
Image
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