2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Whatever GFS and EURO was developing is gone.

Looks like a quiet few days ahead as we enter climatologically the quietest months of the season, February, and a distinct minimum in the first half of March.

[euro6208]

A very strong Kelvin Wave promoting widespread convection. EURO and GFS even ensembles is developing a TC from this mess. Palau, Yap, and the Philippines again.

[1900hurricane]

Ensemble probabilities actually don't look completely awful, although they are still over a week out. I wouldn't be completely be surprised to see a tropical depression or a weak named storm, but climatology is against it. February is undoubtably the least active month in the Tropical Western Pacific.

[euro6208]

Ensemble probabilities actually don't look completely awful, although they are still over a week out. I wouldn't be completely be surprised to see a tropical depression or a weak named storm, but climatology is against it. February is undoubtably the least active month in the Tropical Western Pacific.

Just for fun. I went back to 2000 for February TC development and found that 2004 was the only year that had one. A 35 knot TS. Cat 5 Mitag in 2002 also formed in Feb but peaked in March.

Then we had a 3 year streak, 2012 to 2015. Typhoon Higos in 2015 became the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Northern Hemisphere for so early in the year and 2nd strongest ever within the month.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Alot of upper low pressure systems re: Asia to N Pacific this time of the year after all it is the snow season in the NH.Would like to see a decent Typhoon somewhere. But i think late march is likely a better chance in the WPac.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM also on board.

[euro6208]

EURO still very weak on this. Only has a 1005 mb system before crashing into the P.I.

[euro6208]

Damn WPAC.

[euro6208]

Stronger on the latest 12Z EURO. Has Muifa off the coast of Samar.

[euro6208]

For being so early in the year and entering the most unfavorable month of the season, February, the WPAC sure looks like August/September out there.

If the forecast holds for at least a warm neutral this year, i see a brutal year. Up another notch with El nino?

[1900hurricane]

Guidance remains rather insistent in a weak tropical cyclone developing over the western Philippine Sea. The incipient disturbance is currently a good ways south of Guam.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypKXYyGOMmo

31st January Westpacwx Weather Update Rob S

[1900hurricane]

Lots of broad vorticity is present with the disturbance. It may have enough time to consolidate into something over the next few days as it slides to the WNW.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

For being so early in the year and entering the most unfavorable month of the season, February, the WPAC sure looks like August/September out there.

If the forecast holds for at least a warm neutral this year, i see a brutal year. Up another notch with El nino?

Every year since i have been following the wpac in any enso state in the peak of the TY season iTs brutal, With the Wpac there's no other way. Its just the way it always is and likely always will be.

[euro6208]

Yap and Palau will see more unsettled weather.

The broad circulation now near 5N141E is clearly visible in the
satellite imagery and is picked up by all of the NWP models. As
part of the equatorial trough regime...most of the scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are primarily located along the west...
north and eastern periphery of the circulation. In addition...this
circulation is not expected to intensify significantly. Speed of movement
toward the west is the key factor in this forecast run. GFS
...ECMWF and NAVGEM are all pretty quick to move the circulation west
and south of Koror by Friday and into the PI by the weekend...bringing
back dry weather to Koror and Yap as early as Friday but possibly as
late as Sunday...if some of the bands in the southeastern convergence
remain in the area. Drier weather is expected if not by Friday, at least
by early next week. But, for now, look for possibilities of some
brief periods of heavy rain...in a hit or miss manner...tonight and
Thursday for both Yap and Koror.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I'd probably tag the system as an invest at this point. It certainly looks interesting enough to me.

[euro6208]

INVEST 98W

Now an invest.

[euro6208]

After days of tranquil activity, the models are starting to pick up some action in the last days of February.

[Steve820]

Climatologically, we are now entering the quietest part of the WPac season. However, I won't be surprised to see another tropical depression or even a (non-PAGASA) named storm this month.