2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

The models especially the EURO and GFS has some development north of 20N, 130E-150E during the middle part of this month. Maybe Japan threat again.

[euro6208]

Thought i'd share this on the main WPAC thread.



A big ramp up starting today until the end of October.

[euro6208]

EURO at long range has Banyan crossing the Northern Marianas. The other models show alot of activity especially GFS and are on and off in each runs.

[euro6208]

EURO with developing Banyan. GFS shows nothing.

[mrbagyo]

lets go to the beach and sunbath again.

[1900hurricane]

lets go to the beach and sunbath again.

I would freaking love to. My side of the world looks like it could be a little more unsettled though.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

signal starts coming back around maybe mid next week on this plot.

[euro6208]

There goes our Cat 5 Noru. What an incredible storm to track.

[euro6208]

TSR continues to anticipate the 2017 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will likely see
activity below the 1965-2016 climate norm.

26 TS
14 TY
7 MT
ACE of 255

+ 1 TS, -1 TY, Equal # of MT, and +5 increase in ACE over the July update.


http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastAug2017.pdf

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Much like this time last year, the main portion of the basin is still mostly untouched.

[1900hurricane]

Latest update is up! Not much going on right now, but there is at least one disturbance to keep an eye on. Overall, looks like a fairly quiet week before the possible return of the monsoon trough around day 10.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 9, 2017

[euro6208]

90W INVEST

[euro6208]

Incredible!

[euro6208]

Much like this time last year, the main portion of the basin is still mostly untouched.

That area will be notorious if any manages to develop. I did a quick look comparing this year to previous years all the way back to 2011 when they started doing it and 2017 is by far the warmest most favorable ever and covers a much more larger area.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

[euro6208]

EURO hinting on some development near Guam as the dry phrase of the MJO slowly recedes out of the area.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

Not surprising. The Philippines is the most exposed to tropical cyclones in the world. The *Ber* months are notorious for some of the most extreme landfalls in the world so i won't be surprise if this verifies. The P.I gets hit by a major event every year or two. It's like we are used to this already.

[euro6208]

EURO still hinting on a developing system in the P.I sea around the last week of the month while 00Z GFS was the 3rd run in a row showing a threat to Luzon and China. 06Z came in weaker but also has a single developing TC in the P.I sea.

[euro6208]

Two TC's developing and hitting land.