2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Relax guys, it's only July ...I feel like i'm in the other side of the globe saying that.

[euro6208]

Usually quiet. The MJO is forecast to pass over the area and a mighty Kelvin wave should enhance convection but no signs of anything developing.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

I noticed that those 3 years, 1983, 1998, and 2010 had a monster record breaking typhoon.

1983 had STY Forrest peaking at 876mb 150 knots. (Recon era)

1998 saw STY Zeb peaking at 155 knots before Luzon landfall. (Candidate for most powerful TC ever)

2010 saw STY Megi peaking at 175 knots (Recon verified, maybe stronger as recon were not scheduled regularly) and making a Luzon landfall.

Those 3 seasons had 3-5 Major typhoons. Maybe 2017 will act the same way?

[mrbagyo]

^ Those 3 seasons all happened after significant NINO events.
If I remember correctly, we had a monster El Niño in 2015, I actually thought during the start of 2016 that it will be a very quiet season but didn't turn that way... maybe 2017 will be the actual delayed reaction of that monster Niño of '15.


TC Betting Game: I'll give another bet on a monster landfall in Isabela Coast around 2nd week of October.

[euro6208]

^ Those 3 seasons all happened after significant NINO events.
If I remember correctly, we had a monster El Niño in 2015, I actually thought during the start of 2016 that it will be a very quiet season but didn't turn that way... maybe 2017 will be the actual delayed reaction of that monster Niño of '15.


TC Betting Game: I'll give another bet on a monster landfall in Isabela Coast around 2nd week of October.

Maybe 2017 is another backloaded season like 2016?

[1900hurricane]

For those interested, I have posted a new entry.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 13, 2017

[1900hurricane]

Also, the two areas I discussed in my last post are now designated as invests.

Invest 93W (near Chichijima)
Invest 94W (South China Sea)

[1900hurricane]

Here's an interesting 00Z sounding from Guam showing the upper level subsidence overspreading the area. This is creating a warm nose aloft just above 700 mb. It also appears that the subsidence is interrupted by some cloud debris around 500 and 375 mb. When cross-referencing with water vapor imagery, Guam is pretty near the subsidence maximum right now, but the subsidence might be even greater in the 12Z sounding.

[euro6208]

Someone somewhere is gonna get hit really hard once those storms start coming.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS keeps the basin unusually quiet. Maybe August is when the switch will turn on?

[euro6208]

Latest 18Z GFS has Noru at an unusually high latitude strengthening as it heads to Southern Japan. That subsidence must be really strong in the south!

[euro6208]

Next name on the list is Noru. Submitted by Korea, it means *Roe Deer*.

It was used two times in 2004 and 2011. Both were short lived TS's. Can 2017 break the weakness?

[euro6208]

EURO starting to latch onto GFS's idea of Noru but keeps it very very weak.

GFS completely drops it for the past few runs.

[euro6208]

Something interesting as NAVGEM and CMC has a TC making landfall over Luzon and up the Taiwanese and Chinese seaboard next board for quite sometime now. EURO and GFS glitch.

[euro6208]

Nothing significant over the net few days.

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 150627
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
430 PM ChST Sat Jul 15 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Guam and
Rota coastal waters. Partly cloudy skies and moderate to fresh
trade winds are present across the Marianas. An upper-level low is
evident on the latest water vapor satellite imagery over the
islands.

&&

.Discussion...
A fairly unsettled pattern is likely for the region over the next
several days. An upper-level low, which is evident on the latest
water vapor satellite imagery, is moving through the Marianas this
afternoon. This low is responsible for thunderstorm development
over the islands this morning into this afternoon. The low is
slowly drifting westward and will continue to affect the area over
the next few days.

The latest ASCAT analysis also shows several weak circulations
over Micronesia. A surface trough extending northward from a
circulation centered south-southeast of Chuuk will likely affect
the Marianas early next week. Latest model guidance is now
initializing fairly well and is indicating the possibility of
scattered showers over the area Monday, and possibly as early as
Sunday night. Based on current conditions and model guidance,
decided to change wording of thunderstorms from slight chance to
isolated, but left showers isolated as well. Decided to monitor
the progress a little further tonight or tomorrow before
increasing showers to scattered. Either way, an unsettled wet
pattern is likely through next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
ASCAT Analysis indicates a weak circulation is SSE of Chuuk near
3N153E with surface troughs extending north over Chuuk State and
northeast over Pohnpei State. A large area of showers over northern
Pohnpei State is spreading toward northwest with showers lingering
over Kosrae State. Also, heavy showers persist over southern Chuuk
State, and patchy trade-wind showers are over the RMI. GFS Model
indicates the surface troughs and areas of showers will move slowly
toward west and northwest the next few days, but a pattern of low-
level convergence and showery weather may persist. For the Tuesday
through Wednesday time-frame, models indicate areas of showers will
develop from Kosrae across Pohnpei and Chuuk. The bulk of the heavy
showers should remain west of Majuro but the Marshall Islands may
still receive isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Partly cloudy skies prevail at Yap and Koror today. ASCAT Analysis
indicates the monsoon trough has moved south of Koror and curves to
just north of the Equator, then thru a weak circulation SSE of Yap
near 3N141E. Also, very showery weather is over Chuuk State. Models
indicate the unstable and showery weather over Chuuk State will move
toward the west-northwest, and weather conditions will deteriorate
for Yap and Koror by Sunday night through Monday. Improving weather
should return next week by about Tuesday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Kleeschulte/Simpson

[1900hurricane]

I might start watching the Philippine Sea in late July, around the last week or so. Ensemble means are pretty consistent at bringing the SW monsoon across the Philippines, reestablishing the monsoon trough. 500 mb heights also appear to come down a little by then.

[1900hurricane]

Also, as I might have already mentioned, 2017 has fallen behind both 1983 and 2010 in terms of year to date ACE. Talas keeps us comfortably above 1998 for now, but more activity will be needed to climb back above the other two.

[euro6208]

EURO starting to latch onto GFS's idea of Noru but keeps it very very weak.

GFS completely drops it for the past few runs.

Something interesting as NAVGEM and CMC has a TC making landfall over Luzon and up the Taiwanese and Chinese seaboard next board for quite sometime now. EURO and GFS glitch.

The EURO dropped it too and NAVGEM drops the Luzon system although CMC which probrably isn't a good model to use in the very active WPAC continues to do so although it is starting to favor in GFS's diection. It has a typhoon for the past few runs southeast of Japan.

[1900hurricane]

My latest entry is up! This one takes a look at Severe Tropical Storm Talas as it makes landfall in Vietnam and speculates about the return of the monsoon trough in late July.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 16, 2017