2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

GFS hinting on a Luzon threat next month but is very long range so let's see what will happen.

[euro6208]

EURO has possibly another TC impacting the Hong Kong/Macau region which was devastated by Cat 3 Hato last week and today's TS Pakhar.

Not so reliable CMC has a typhoon northeast of the area.

[mrbagyo]

EURO has possibly another TC impacting the Hong Kong/Macau region which was devastated by Cat 3 Hato last week and today's TS Pakhar.

Not so reliable CMC has a typhoon northeast of the area.

Is Euro mad with that area?

[euro6208]

EURO has possibly another TC impacting the Hong Kong/Macau region which was devastated by Cat 3 Hato last week and today's TS Pakhar.

Not so reliable CMC has a typhoon northeast of the area.

Is Euro mad with that area?

The vortex that is to become this is east of Luzon within the robust monsoon trough.

[euro6208]

90W THREAD

Now designated.

[euro6208]

MJO and Kelvin wave about to move through.

[euro6208]

CMC, NAVGEM, and JMA have Guchol developing next month and possibly affecting East Asia. EURO and GFS still not on it yet.

[euro6208]

Wow this is crazy. EURO possibly has Guchol affecting Hong Kong/Macau. This will be the 6th one if it verifies and they haven't recovered from Hato.

CMC and JMA in the same timeframe has it Taiwan bound.

[mrbagyo]

Lots of convective activity going on at WPAC's MDR with areas of positive convergence near the Marshall Islands/ dateline & in the Philippine Sea North of Palau
Most guidance show a quiet WPAC for the next week or so except for the CMC of course which shows a recurving TC near the N. Marianas.

[euro6208]

The models drops all sort of development (NAVGEM, EURO, and GFS). Despite being September, CFS shows a somewhat unfavorable start to the month and closed for business but does show some lowering pressures and more moisture beginning in the 2nd half of this month and into October and a passing MJO. Guidance has it returning before October. Kelvin Wave is nonexistant.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Euro is expecting "tropical storm" Guchol/Talim near Japan... What?!

[euro6208]

EURO has been showing Guchol the last 2 runs. Much stronger in the 12z update.




GFS not as strong. Only shows a weak system moving through the Philippine sea.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

EURO has been showing Guchol the last 2 runs. Much stronger in the 12z update.




GFS not as strong. Only shows a weak system moving through the Philippine sea.

It's Talim now.

[euro6208]

94W THREAD

Pre-Talim.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Next 5 names on the list.

Doksuri
Khanun
Lan
Saola
Damrey

All remains quiet after *Talas*.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

00z Euro seems to make (in final hours on the run) a scene that is similar to Meranti-Rai-Malakas setup, and on the same day. WHAT?!
I think it might happen after all, with 94W becoming Talim, 95W (possibly into, if it manage to survive alot of shear) Khanun and 96W Doksuri. Also 97W is also seen here, potentially becoming an another Banyan-like storm when suppressed MJO dominates.

[euro6208]

00z Euro seems to make (in final hours on the run) a scene that is similar to Meranti-Rai-Malakas setup, and on the same day. WHAT?!
I think it might happen after all, with 94W becoming Talim, 95W (possibly into, if it manage to survive alot of shear) Khanun and 96W Doksuri. Also 97W is also seen here, potentially becoming an another Banyan-like storm when suppressed MJO dominates.

Where are you getting this info?

Only 94 and 95W is being monitored

Updated: I see 96W designated now.

96W Thread

[euro6208]

Nonetheless, I see the EURO and GFS hinting on Doksuri come this month. EURO has it in the Philippine sea while GFS has it east of the Marianas. Time will tell as the world's most active basin continues to sleep...

[euro6208]

Maybe another late bloomer for the WPAC? We've seen it many times before.