2017 WPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Looking at what recon is finding in the storms over the Atlantic I now get the argument of WPAC (and EPAC) systems being underestimated quite often. I'm not sure if the higher background pressures play a role or not, but placing those storms over the Pacific basins they would hardly be a dent making runs for cat 5 when estimated with dvorak.

[euro6208]

Looking at what recon is finding in the storms over the Atlantic I now get the argument of WPAC (and EPAC) systems being underestimated quite often. I'm not sure if the higher background pressures play a role or not, but placing those storms over the Pacific basins they would hardly be a dent making runs for cat 5 when estimated with dvorak.

Now you see how much we need recon over here. Only 3 from your WHEM rivaling our typhoons.

Seems like 6.0 and 6.5's is the numbers to look at when recon finds a Cat 5.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117675

[Ntxw]

Looking at what recon is finding in the storms over the Atlantic I now get the argument of WPAC (and EPAC) systems being underestimated quite often. I'm not sure if the higher background pressures play a role or not, but placing those storms over the Pacific basins they would hardly be a dent making runs for cat 5 when estimated with dvorak.

Now you see how much we need recon over here. Only 3 from your WHEM vs tons from here and alot more impressive.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117675

I'm well aware of the impressive cold cloud tops of the Pacific storms (and Indian Ocean) and even the south Pacific. I just haven't had real time comparisons for the Atlantic to use as a measuring stick since I followed this board until now.

But it is hard to argue. The only two recent cases of impressive presentation on the Pacific side and recon (Patricia and Megi) just happens to show record wind speeds is no coincidence. And that a lot of even weaker storms, with tight cores are likely stronger than their estimates that looks just like Irma.

[euro6208]

I know the WPAC is strong but i cannot imagine just how strong it should have been if recon never left. It's truly incredible how those typhoons just come and go and forever disappears in history. With recon, it's records broken every year or two.

A Cat 5 hitting the Philippines or roaming the seas seems like a normal regular occurrence every year now.

[galaxy401]

I know the WPAC is strong but i cannot imagine just how strong it should have been if recon never left. It's truly incredible how those typhoons just come and go and forever disappears in history. With recon, it's records broken every year or two.

A Cat 5 hitting the Philippines or roaming the seas seems like a normal regular occurrence every year now.

I agree with your point but you have been constantly saying the same phrases countless times already. We get it.

[euro6208]

Very long range so something to watch. Has a developing TC approaching the Marianas.

[euro6208]

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

00z Euro have a highly organized extratropical cyclone/ subtropical one that JMA might name it as Khanun for some weird reason at the end of the run.
(Update: 12z makes this not as organized as the previous)

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Looking at the water loop i would want to say there is a two things located on the east of Talim: A convection near an anticyclone and a moonsoon convection. Since what WPAC is doing now reminds me of Meranti-17W-Rai-Malakas setup, i think that convection near an anticyclone (which is moving north) would become a TD at least by JMA and JTWC (so "17W" of 2017) while that moonsoon convection, while organizing steadily, would develop at least into a weak TS Khanun at it's best while Talim is still alive (and might tagged TD soon by JMA when it's located west of Guam) then after Talim dies Khanun will start recurving near Taiwan then develops quickly into a strong typhoon (so "Malakas" of 2017). The models isn't predicting both right now, but i think models would take a look at it as soon as possible.

[euro6208]

18Z



00z

[euro6208]

CFS still suggesting lowering pressures and a more wetter atmosphere come beginning last week of September and well into next year.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

You would not want any low riders with favorable mjo conditions too pop up in the future. There's just too much ocean heat available.

edit typo

[euro6208]

You wound not want any low riders with favorable mjo conditions too pop up in the future. There's just too much ocean heat available.

Not a single low latitude this season in the deep tropics. It will be interesting.

[euro6208]

It's already September and nothing yet on Japan's planned recon missions. Anyone have an update?

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/typhoon-observation-western-pacific-recon-aircraft

[euro6208]

EURO catching on GFS's. It also has developing Khanun in the P.I sea.

[euro6208]

NWS starting to see some potential.

GFS shows a circulation developing near the Marianas Friday afternoon
and night. ECMWF does show a circulation existing for a brief time
to the west of the Marianas. NAVGEM shows a circulation developing
further west, but also develops a twin east of the Marianas later on.
Kept the weather feature on Friday as a surface trough although other
models, such as the CMC, are also hinting at a weak circulation. At
any rate, if it is a circulation it will remain weak and the shower
coverage will be the same either way. Another surface trough may
bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area
Thursday and Wednesday.

[euro6208]

Here comes another round of Kelvin Wave and MJO. It'll be interesting to see if this will kickstart the basin even more. Already 2 TC's out there and it hasn't even started.

[euro6208]

The models still pretty tame on this. Nothing too aggressive.

[1900hurricane]

The WPac will end the day will 100 ACE, about a month behind average.

[euro6208]

Very warm waters in the WPAC. With no el nino this season and nothing to push all that water to the east, it's literally stuck. Looks very ninaish. More TC's developing closer to land and possibly rapid intensifying later this season.