2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.facebook.com/northauschaser ... 6559363211
With the early arrival of the wet season over the top--end the stronger highs that come with it should start pushing through now. And may start to stir up things to the north of the EQ also.

[euro6208]

Satellite imagery, on Oct 3, reveals a trough of low pressure with convection near 15N-150E over the west Pacific. Model guidance supports slow TC development, albeit with moderate confidence, over the west Pacific (10 to 20N/120 to 140E) during Week-1. The moderate confidence for TC development is maintained for the west Pacific during Week-2 and expanded to include the South China Sea, based on the GEFS model guidance and climatology.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ukmet run looks a big monsoon gyre to the east of PI.

[euro6208]

Yup NAVGEM joins EURO and GFS on the SCS system. EURO is much weaker passing south of Hainan Island while GFS is much stronger into Vietnam. Probrably near typhoon strength.

[euro6208]

Very long range but this is what GFS has for the WPAC. Most active I've seen in weeks. It has multiple systems in the area with a powerful typhoon again in the SCS. The others all the way to Guam remains weak.

[mrbagyo]

(-_-)...zzzZz -> (°o°)



10/04 - 12z 240hrs


10/04 - 18z 240hrs


edit: 05 00z just came out - a bit more south but still a hit in N. Luzon.


edit: gone on 10/05 06z run -_- zZzZ

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Yup NAVGEM joins EURO and GFS on the SCS system. EURO is much weaker passing south of Hainan Island while GFS is much stronger into Vietnam. Probrably near typhoon strength.

Well...The models sided with the EURO.

[euro6208]

The GFS and now NAVGEM are still in agreement with that SCS system I posted a while back. GFS has it fairly strong and track similiar to Typhoon Doksuri last month.

[euro6208]

12Z and 18Z GFS shows even more activity long range. It has 2 more including a typhoon in the P.I sea.

[euro6208]

French scientists on Guam use experimental balloons to study tropical cyclones

The researchers are scheduled to be here until Oct. 21, and up to three balloon releases may be conducted.

Interesting. I hope something do forms or else they won't be able to release any balloons. Has anyone got any update from Japan's planned recon return this season? It's already October.

French Researchers on Guam for Tropical Cyclone Research
Guam will serve as the base of operations during the next few weeks for a team of scientists and technicians from France. The team aims to release miniature blimps, or AeroClippers, from Guam, with the goal of being drawn into a developing tropical cyclone. Based on climatological studies, Guam was selected as one of the most favorable sites in the world for the AeroClipper to be captured by a tropical cyclone.
The goal of this research is to provide continuous in-situ measurements, such as location and surface pressure, in order to monitor real-time changes in the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. This data will be assimilated into computer models to ultimately improve the forecasts. The AeroClipper can simultaneously record measurements of the ocean surface and atmosphere over long distances in areas where conventional observations are less concentrated. The AeroClipper is tracked via GPS and can send data for up to 30 days.
The operational period is October 4th through 21st. Releases from the Hagatna Boat Basin may begin as early as this weekend; up to 3 releases may occur. The AeroClipper will be tethered to a free-floating guide-rope which will keep it afloat around 100 feet above the surface.
NWS Guam meteorologists are working closely with this team, providing daily weather reports on current conditions and a tropical weather outlook.
Folks and motorists in and around Hagatna will notice little impact to daily routines. Once a mission window is set for a release, the AeroClipper will be escorted from the warehouse along Marine Corps Drive in Hagatna, across the highway to the boat basin. GPD will provide assistance for crossing the highway and GFD will provide a safety zone in the water. The USCG will release a broadcast notice to Mariners in conjunction with a Marine Safety Information Bulletin on this weather balloon.

[dexterlabio]

Tempting fate, it looks like the WPAC basin is destined to not have its tropical cyclones studied through recon. Just when recon missions are reported this year, WPAC decides to go quiet.

[euro6208]

96W INVEST

Up for what the models develop in the SCS.

[euro6208]

Looking very active out there in the last week as the MJO moves through.

[doomhaMwx]

We currently have Invest 95W, 96W, 97W
Additional Invest areas may form or get designated over the Philippine Sea and/or South China Sea within the next few days... As mentioned in another thread by another member, it appears though that the South China Sea will be the most favorable area in the basin this week and possibly through next week for tropical disturbances/cyclones to develop/intensify further...

Jason Nicholls‏ @jnmet
More
Conditions looking favourable for cyclone development in the South #China Sea late next week.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://wx.graphics/models/tropical/gefs_ensemble.php
95/96/97 ens.

[mrbagyo]

Latest ECMWF 00z run has an intensifying TC moving towards Luzon @ 240 hrs - almost exactly 1 year after Haima ravaged the area. Still watching for guidance consistency though

[euro6208]

Latest ECMWF 00z run has an intensifying TC moving towards Luzon @ 240 hrs - almost exactly 1 year after Haima ravaged the area. Still watching for guidance consistency though

Slow season but here it goes. I believe EURO over GFS anyday.

[mrbagyo]

There's already 2 - 98W and there might be another invest in the near future - 99W (could be that area of disorganized convection between Pohnpei/ Kosrae & Marshall islands or maybe something new pops up)

btw, the European model and GFS are now both showing an intensifying system in the Philippine Sea within the next 10 days

10/10 GFS 00z run