2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Well at least the EURO has something next month.

[euro6208]

Almost October and we see 2 areas struggling to develop.

[NotSparta]

Almost October and we see 2 areas struggling to develop.

Yeah, the WPAC is being outclassed by the least active of the big three basins. You don't see that everyday

[euro6208]

Despite this slowness, the WPAC is slightly above average in terms of named storms but the quality is somewhat poor. ACE is way below normal seen during La nina years.

There is still no nina officially and the most dangerous and active part of the season is coming up climatologically wise.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS doesn't have anything anytime soon.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA is monitoring a Low Pressure Area—possibly the remnants of Invest 92W, over the South China Sea, just to the west of Southern Luzon... Probably only a Tropical Depression at most as it takes a track quite similar to the track of Tropical Depression 22W during the next few days...

There is also weak Low Pressure Area near Palau and Yap islands, near the western terminus of a near-equatorial trough... This disturbance may affect some parts of the Philippines later this week... Models are currently not showing Tropical Cyclone development as the disturbance moves towards the Philippines, probably due to unfavorable shear...

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

For remnants of Invest 92W, it's location on favorable wind shear and temperatures made me think that this is pretty certain to organize quickly enough to become minimal typhoon at worst and be named Khanun but it might be only TD 23W at the best. While potential Invest 94W (only if it managed to do so) may well fall into wind shear before developing. Though it could survive and become mid-strength Typhoon at worst but it could be mid-strength TS at best.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA is monitoring a Low Pressure Area—possibly the remnants of Invest 92W, over the South China Sea, just to the west of Southern Luzon... Probably only a Tropical Depression at most as it takes a track quite similar to the track of Tropical Depression 22W during the next few days...

There is also weak Low Pressure Area near Palau and Yap islands, near the western terminus of a near-equatorial trough... This disturbance may affect some parts of the Philippines later this week... Models are currently not showing Tropical Cyclone development as the disturbance moves towards the Philippines, probably due to unfavorable shear...

System near Yap and Palau is now Invest 93W...

[galaxy401]

It is quite strange to see the WPAC so quiet during September and for so long. Usually there would at least be a TS active. Looks like this might continue too.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

NOTHING on the latest GFS and CMC run up to the middle of October! Saving grace is that the NAVGEM has a possible TC but barely.

[mrbagyo]

( -_-)...zzzZzzZzzZZZ

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Still nothing on the EURO and GFS runs.

[euro6208]

Of note, is a recent dearth of western Pacific tropical cyclone activity, which likely to continue for at least the next 14 days.

[NotoSans]

2017 seems to be the first year since 1973 to have no named storms during the latter part of September.

[doomhaMwx]

Track of all NWPac Tropical Storms and higher that formed in the month of October, 1951-2016 (JMA data)...
Since 1951, even during "quiet" typhoon seasons like this year, not a single October has passed without at least one tropical/named storm forming... (The 1976 season came sooo close though, when the only Oct storm that season—"Louise"—formed on the 31st)...

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/se ... np&mtype=s
(Image from Digital-Typhoon)

[euro6208]

355
FXPQ60 PGUM 020759
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
600 PM ChST Mon Oct 2 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Abundant cloudiness and isolated showers and thunderstorms
prevailed across the Marianas late this afternoon. Combined seas
were mainly 3 to 4 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Earlier showers and thunderstorms have generally moved east of
the Marianas, with some activity well off the coastal waters.
There should be a brief lull in activity tonight, then a large
upper low to the north of the Marianas coupled with a weak surface
trough will begin to move toward the region on Tuesday. The upper
low will move west-southwestward from Tuesday into Wednesday.
These two features will bring periods of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

By later in the week, drier air will move in, with another upper
low possible over the weekend.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas are currently 3 to 4 feet and this looks to persist
through the week. There is both an east and northeast swell
expected through much of the week, with the northeast swell
becoming more northerly by Saturday. Rip currents should be low
for most, if not all, of the upcoming week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Fair weather exists across the eastern region from Chuuk to Majuro. Vis
satellite shows scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of 10N
and eastward toward the Marianas. High pressure centered just NE of Majuro
will keep pleasant conditions in place overnight there. GFS shows a weak
ITCZ setting up across the region that will bring more clouds, an uptick
in showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS
still favors a circulation developing near Chuuk around Thursday, with a
near-equatorial trough extending eastward across Pohnpei and Kosrae. For
now, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae should expect relatively wetter weather by
the end of the week and winds from the south or southeast.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
Fair weather was present much of the day at Yap and Koror. Light winds
at Koror did allow some island convection to develop over and just northwest
of Koror. Similar conditions expected for both locations tomorrow with fair
weather and light winds persisting. Weak convergence could generate more
clouds and showers at Yap from the north on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Otherwise, expect a benign weather outlook through Thursday. A disturbance/
circulation from near Chuuk could bring wetter weather for the weekend.
Will have to watch the evolution of this scenario closely around
Wednesday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Nierenberg/M. Aydlett

[euro6208]

Despite this slowness, the number of storms are still about average. It's just waiting to wake up and go WPAC super mode but unlikely this season.

Still looking very inactive in the West Pac basin, particularly our WFO Guam AOR. However basin-wide, our number of storms so far are about average. In the next 1 to 2 weeks, not much activity expected though the GFS pings a weak circulation/disturbance moving thru the FSM. Not much development expected at this time, but worth watching as it progresses none the less. With a lot of season ahead of us, always need to be on guard and keep preparations in order just in case.

[euro6208]

Another short lived system? GFS and EURO has another SCS system before crashing into Vietnam.