2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

NAVGEM 998mb



CMC 987mb



EURO 994mb



GFS 1000 mb

[euro6208]

What the models develop if ever is taking shape east of Vietnam.

[euro6208]

EURO forecast for Aug/Sept/Oct is pretty active.

[1900hurricane]

Invest 94W has been declared.

[euro6208]

More action in the Meiyu front but not anything classifiable.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS for the past 6 runs hinting on something originating near the Marianas. It doesn't develop it that much but something to watch down the road.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Now has Merbok making landfall in the Philippines.

Development starting in just 300 hours now.

[euro6208]

It does have MJO support.

[euro6208]

CMC and NAVGEM coming on board with development while GFS continues to show Merbok a whole alot weaker, 996mb, and much further east recurving west of the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Quite astonishing. The models drop all kinds of development and keeps the world's most active basin quiet.

Zip, nada, devoid of any well developed TC.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

June can sometimes be a pretty big Mei-yu month, and that appears to be the current regime for the most part. A Mei-yu dominated Tropical Western Pacific is generally not favorable for tropical cyclogenesis. Still though, I would have expected at least some minor activity in the time span between Mufia and now, and we haven't even observed that. For the second year in a row, the WPac (and NHEM in general) is starting out a bit lackluster. Things will probably pick up by July though, if not sooner, as the monsoon trough climatologically becomes more active around then.

[euro6208]

The Mei-yu front should gradually move away.

[1900hurricane]

This is the time of year where it climatologically exerts its most influence though. In early and mid June, storm days of pretty much all intensities (and therefore ACE/PDI) experience a local minimum. The Mei-yu plays a big role in that.

[euro6208]

Looks like it may alternate the weather a bit for the islands.

134
FXPQ60 PGUM 050834
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
634 PM ChST Mon Jun 5 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
The Mei-yu front to the northwest is forcing the subtropical ridge
southward over the northern Marianas. It is currently north of the
Saipan waters. This will keep winds fairly light and weather
rather dry through the forecast period. The buoys reveal combined
seas of 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Little change expected this week as the subtropical ridge remains
in the vicinity. In fact, the GFS showed it moving further south
and actually reaching the Saipan waters, possibly resulting in
south or southwest wind flow there. For now am sticking with
southeast in the forecast. Generally, the close proximity of the
ridge will promote rather dry weather with fairly light winds.
This will also keep seas low, leading to benign marine conditions.
This is a boon to virtually all our forecast areas except fire
weather. The KBDI is now in the extreme category. As long as the
winds remain this light, it is only a minor issue. The problem
could arise if the winds strengthen before significant rains
return. For now, enjoy the good weather, just stay tuned because
it will last for a while, but not forever.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Generally uneventful weather in this part of Micronesia with
clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms west of Kosrae and
over the Marshall Islands. The shower activity will increase
later in the week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The main rainmaker in the region is the surface trough near Koror.
This trough remains nearly stationary and will keep scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over Koror and Yap through much
of the forecast period. Scattered showers will reach Chuuk state
by mid week but should give way to partly cloudy skies by weeks
end.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Stanko/Miller

[mrbagyo]

You know you're really bored when you constantly look at sat images looking for some blob to form. hahaha

lucky me, i found one.

This could be the first Invest for the month of June.

[dexterlabio]

^Euro also has it as a disorganized low. Models are showing this roughly 2 days before the expected formation. I am more used to model performance catching TC genesis >1 week out.

[euro6208]

The dread continues with the models showing nothing. Maybe June might be quiet?