2017 WPAC Season

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2017 WPAC Season

#1 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:29 pm

Almost forgot a new season is about to unfold on January 1st with the WPAC still spurting out some possible activity to end 2016.

Who's ready for the upcoming season?
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#2 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:56 pm

Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Home to the warmest waters in the world, more tropical cyclones make landfall in the West Pacific than in any basin in the world.


Image

Credit: Jim Edds

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Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:04 pm

Next 30 names on the list. Many memorable ones are coming back.

Nock-Ten (Used in 2016)
Muifa
Merbok
Nanmadol
Talas
Noru
Kulap
Roke
Sonca
Nesat
Haitang
Nalgae
Banyan
Hato
Pakhar
Sanvu
Mawar
Guchol
Talim
Doksuri
Khanun
Lan
Saola
Damrey
Haikui
Kirogi
Kai-tak
Tembin
Bolaven
Sanba
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:24 pm

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952258N18178 1952091800 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952296N06152 1952102606 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1952123118 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1953010100 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081200 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081206 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081212 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081218 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081300 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081306 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081312 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081318 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081400 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1955346N06142 1955121518 165.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073000 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073012 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073018 155.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1957311N06171 1957111612 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052818 155.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090112 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090200 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090206 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092406 160.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092418 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092500 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092506 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092512 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092518 160.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082818 155.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082900 165.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082912 160.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091500 160.0 SARAH
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092306 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092318 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092400 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092406 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092412 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092418 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092500 155.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091000 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091006 165.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091012 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091018 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091100 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091106 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091112 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091118 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091206 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091212 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091218 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091300 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091306 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091312 160.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100618 160.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100700 175.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100712 170.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962224N11151 1962081700 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110906 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110912 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110918 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111300 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111306 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090618 155.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090700 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090712 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090718 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090800 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090806 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090812 160.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111800 155.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111812 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111818 160.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121200 155.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121206 160.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121212 165.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121300 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121306 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121312 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121318 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121400 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062606 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062612 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101500 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101506 155.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1971311N06141 1971111200 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101200 160.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101212 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101218 155.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992277N16140 1992101400 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112018 155.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112106 155.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110106 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110112 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110118 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110200 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110206 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110212 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101712 155.0 IVAN
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997284N04179 1997101712 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997299N07169 1997110218 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121718 155.0 PAKA:PAKA
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101318 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101400 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMRCY:DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061612 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061618 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082306 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082312 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082318 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082400 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082418 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2009325N06148 2009112518 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 175 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2010285N13145 2010101718 155.0 MEGI
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (8.0 dvorak, strongest storm in the world)
2014 Vongfong 155.0
2014 Nuri 155.0
2014 Hagupit 155.0
2015 Soudelor 155.0
2016 Meranti 165.0

Only one was added in 2016 in Meranti. Three from 2014 and one from 2015 despite it being a Super nino.

These monsters are coming. There were 8 from the 90's, 6 from 2000 to 2010.

We already have 7 in the same timespan with three years left in the decade.

The record is 13 from the 50's.
12 from the 60's.

Although it's hard to compare especially with the lack of recon that ended in 1987. Many storms were probrably underestimated based on satellite.











Will more +155 knot monsters develop this year? :eek:
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:15 am

This is going to be a very exciting season for meteorology and scientists with the return of recon.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2016/06/17/typhoon-hunters-return-to-the-western-pacific/
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/typhoon-observation-western-pacific-recon-aircraft


Consistent typhoon reconnaissance ended nearly 30 years ago in 1987 with the closing of the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron base in Guam.

The squadron was responsible for some of the lowest official pressure readings in world history in a tropical cyclone and was key in forecasting the storms for a half a century.


Flights are expected to start in 2017 and continue through 2020 with hopes of extending if funding remains suitable.


Due to the small size of the aircraft compared to its cousin the C-130 hurricane hunters it may not be able to punch the eye wall on significant typhoons, but one of the researchers during a interview with NHK TV stated they will try to get as close as possible to the storms center as safety permits.


A history on the WPAC's U.S recon when based on Guam and the different countries currently doing recon and their plans.

http://p-3publications.com/PDF/ResurgenceofTropicalCycloneReconnaissanceAircraft.pdf
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:17 pm

When will recon start in the basin? Yeah it's in 2017 but it could be November of that year.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:08 am

Can't believe it's only 19 days away from the official start of the 2017 season. One season comes and goes.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:40 am

Wow just 9 more days until the official start. 2016 isn't even over with Nock-ten threatening the P.I.

WPAC never rest.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:08 am

Brand new season and GFS already is hinting on a possible TC for the Philippines again.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:23 pm

Image

Elsewhere, during Week-2, the CFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement for above-average rainfall across northern Queensland of Australia and parts of the West Pacific (5-10N/125-155E), including Mindanao of the Philippines. The region east of the Philippines will have to be closely monitored for tropical cyclone development in next week's outlook.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 5:49 am

galaxy401 wrote:When will recon start in the basin? Yeah it's in 2017 but it could be November of that year.


NWS Guam mentions this and what to expect for the upcoming season. No date give on recon's return.

It has been a 'different' kind of year that definitely goes to show that each ENSO pattern can't be quite form-fitted into a box of expectations. 2017 could be a bit of a mixed bag of expectations. Models have the poorest performance predicting ENSO patterns around this time of year, but start improving mid-Spring. But even so, model trends are angling for a weak La Nina the next few months, then pushing for a more neutral pattern slightly on the weak El Nino side. That comes with the expectation that we will see a fairly dry dry season, but likely not bone dry for the Marianas. Passing trade-wind disturbances will bring some relief in moisture. South of 10N can expect more and larger disturbances. TC-wise, we're still looking at most TCs, especially earlier in 2017, staying down south of 10N and farther west. Later in 2017 we should expect a better chance of TCs coming closer to the Marianas.

I'm not sure about the ETA of Japan recon flights resuming, but I'm sure we'll be hearing some chatter soon, especially as we head into spring.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:24 am

Image

2017 Typhoon Season officially starts.

Happy New Year Everyone!
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:55 am

Image

Won't be surprised to see another invest tagged for the system east of Mindanao. Models developing something out on this although weak. EURO and GFS brings a strong LPA/TD through Mindanao and into the SCS. WIll it be enough to become Muifa?

Thread for the invest that was deactivated.

INVEST 95W THREAD
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:05 am

EURO now makes the system a TS in the SCS. GFS and NAVGEM still doesn't do much with this.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#15 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 6:19 am

96W THREAD

Now an invest.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:36 am

Maybe another one?

GFS is trying to develop something south of Guam generally moving towards the west towards Yap and the Philippines.

It has support from EURO, NAVGEM. and HWRF.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:14 am

NAVGEM deepens this system to 988mb as it passes near Yap and Palau.

CMC 989mb in the SCS after it becomes a TC after passing over the Philippines.

EURO and GFS nothing spectacular maybe just a weak area of LP passing over the Philippines.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:12 pm

INVEST 97W THREAD

Now an invest.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#19 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:41 am

Models trying to spin up something in the SCS.

GFS for the past several days has Muifa in the SCS. This on the 29th.

Image

EURO also has some type of weak development before crashing into Mindanao on the 26th.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#20 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:03 am

EURO doesn't develop anything so far.

GFS still tries to develop something in the SCS or even before hitting the Philippines. It had a typhoon hitting Mindanao or the Visayas but has backed off. Something weak is at best.
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