2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#521 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:52 am

Well here we go. JTWC just upgraded 91W to 25W.

Slow ACE wise but active. The WPAC never sleeps.

25W THREAD
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#522 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:35 pm

GFS saying 4 more TC. Three to follow Lan and another long range with almost the same track as Lan.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#523 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:27 am

GFS showing a powerful repeat of Typhoon Sarah over the SCS; Sarah was pulled to the east by Super Typhoon Tip and executed an erratic track due to weak steering currents.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#524 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:09 am

93W THREAD

Up for Lan's childrens.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#525 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:16 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS showing a powerful repeat of Typhoon Sarah over the SCS; Sarah was pulled to the east by Super Typhoon Tip and executed an erratic track due to weak steering currents.


Looks like the latest model runs have backed off from this or is not strong as earlier runs. EURO still doesn't do anything with it and GFS is much much weaker but still shows a significant TC impacting the P.I. NAVGEM and CMC are robust.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#526 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:18 am

I think that many assume August and September to be the 'big' months in the NHem, but with the WPac tending to produce lots of intense and historic typhoons in October - not to mention that EVERY NHem basin except the CPac had its most intense known storm during the month - I think that October is perhaps king when it comes to really impressive storms. What it may lack in overall storm count it makes up for in intensity and destructiveness, in many years.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#527 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:09 pm

94W THREAD

SCS system.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#528 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:20 pm

Closing in on 2013. Philippines at Storm # 16, 3 names behind 4 years prior. Similar to that year, we are seeing a significant heightening of tropical cyclone activity due to an MJO
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#529 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:04 am

This MJO is just off the charts.


Image
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Image
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Image





Accompanying this is a very strong Kelvin Wave.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#530 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:02 am

This monsoon trough/gyre really dampering more stronger cyclones to develop with Lan taking it's time to develop and weak cyclones developing around it's periphery.

EURO has this coming from the CPAC and GFS is a buzz quiet. Same with NAVGEM.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#531 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:56 am

Some of the models still has a crossover from the CPAC. All of them including the EURO has very little development before dissipating.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#532 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:55 am

Well no more crossover. The models are still indicating more development down the road. GFS forecast another system to develop in front of our current 27W. Keeps it weak though. EURO likes it.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#533 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:47 am

My gut tells me something big about November and December for the Philippines.... Analogs are 1984 and 2013. A streak of no super typhoons (or full of weak systems) was observed during the peak and look what we saw, Agnes and Haiyan respectively.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#534 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:18 am

euro6208 wrote:Well no more crossover. The models are still indicating more development down the road. GFS forecast another system to develop in front of our current 27W. Keeps it weak though. EURO likes it.


Bummer.

The GFS drops it and EURO.

Image

GFS hinting on another Philippine system. Previous runs had a low latitude typhoon but is weaker on this run.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#535 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:27 am

Here are the past 8 GFS runs at fantasy land territory (384 hrs)

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#536 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:26 am

GFS really persistent on long range - might be a west runner. It's still very early to put any weight on the solution but it is indeed intriguing.

As of this date, all landfalling systems in the Philippines this year were just TD or TS strength.

Last time the Philippines didn't experience a Typhoon landfall within a single year was either in 2005 (JMA -10min MSW) or 2002 (JTWC - 1min MSW)
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#537 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:30 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#538 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:51 am

mrbagyo wrote:GFS really persistent on long range - might be a west runner. It's still very early to put any weight on the solution but it is indeed intriguing.

As of this date, all landfalling systems in the Philippines this year were just TD or TS strength.

Last time the Philippines didn't experience a Typhoon landfall within a single year was either in 2005 (JMA -10min MSW) or 2002 (JTWC - 1min MSW)


What were the names of the two?
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#539 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:36 pm

Image

Interesting.

EURO has Damrey making landfall in extreme Southeast Asia, first southern Vietnam and into Thailand.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#540 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:45 pm

:uarrow:
That feature has been appearing on ECMWF for quite some time now... GFS does not show it yet , while CMC has development much quicker (as always) than ECMWF... Looks like it has a potential to move into the NIO basin as well... Nothing's certain yet at this time, but definitely something to keep an eye on, as most of the powerful (Category 4's and 5's) October-November cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have originated from this area—southern SCS, Gulf of Thailand, and Andaman Sea...
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