2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#541 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:42 am

Damrey was actually the first name used in this new naming system that began in 2000. It became the first TS, TY, STY (130 knots), and Cat 5 in the Northern Hemisphere peaking at 155 knots and also the first Cat 5 of the 21st century worldwide. Incredible.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#542 Postby Krit-tonkla » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:55 am

12z GFS now onboard with Damrey and has landfall in southern Thailand on Nov 1.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#543 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:10 pm

NAVGEM also hopping on board. 78 hour position is east of Ho Chi Minh City.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.4N 112.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.10.2017 9.9N 112.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.10.2017 10.5N 111.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.10.2017 10.9N 111.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.10.2017 11.4N 110.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.10.2017 12.3N 108.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.10.2017 12.2N 106.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#544 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:40 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#545 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:46 am

Image

Another SCS system...Haikui?
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#546 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:02 am

GFS long range...

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#547 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:14 pm

GFS has been on and off on the long range.

Latest :darrow:
Image

ASEAN summit will be held on Nov. 13 to 15 in the Phils.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#548 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:37 am

A bit concerned now. GFS still showing the storm moving westerly under a strong ridge. It's October 27th..... with an H storm given by China next on the naming lists.... and I think we've seen this familiar run 4 years ago :eek:
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#549 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:14 am

Haikui and Haiyan. Yes.

06Z GFS coming in weaker but it's very long range. Let's watch and wait. The three lowest ACE season on record besides 2017 featured a CAT 5 Zeb and a Cat 4 Babs (Peaked as a Cat 5 before landfall) in 1998, a Cat 3 (Dan) in 1999, and a Cat 5 (Megi) and a 4 (Chaba) in 2010 by around this date. And all of them hit the Philippines besides Dan and Chaba.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#550 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:52 pm

Still has it on the 18z run (Kirogi)

Image

In addition to this (Haikui, after Damrey---similar track)

Image

00z run shows a much more powerful Haikui peaking at 958 mb on its approach to Vietnam. ECMWF agrees as well
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#551 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:42 am

Off topic, just wanna share this.

Image
You'll know we are in the colder months when you see Von Karman vortices forming downwind of Jeju island.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#552 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:54 am

Last 2 months of the season upon us. The models very quiet so far so maybe it's over?
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#553 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:19 am

Image

Been watching this persistent area of convection west of Guam - looks intriguing to me, could be our next invest.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#554 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:01 pm

Image

Season so far is

22 TS
10 TY
4 MT
1 Cat 5

151.625

http://wx.graphics/tropical/
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#555 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:01 am

JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 06N 139E WEST SLOWLY.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#556 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:56 am

mrbagyo wrote:JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 06N 139E WEST SLOWLY.



Crazy to think that the notorious Philippine Sea which is known as the number 1 spot for rapid intensification, most Cat 5's, and the greatest number of storms at peak intensity worldwide is struggling so much this year. It's like the energy is zapped. Now we just see struggling weak LPA's and TC's.

Lan is the only storm to intensify within the Philippine Sea yet it's only a Cat 4.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#557 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:14 am

Back to the system.

Literally no model support. Only the EURO and GFS brings this to Vietnam. Very weak.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#558 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:59 am

Hmmmm. :?:
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#559 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:51 pm

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#560 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:36 am

GFS and EURO hinting on another system behind 97W which makes landfall over the Philippines and into Vietnam but doesn't develop it.
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